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Quintet Volume Projection

Author

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  • Vladimir Markov
  • Olga Vilenskaia
  • Vlad Rashkovich

Abstract

We present a set of models relevant for predicting various aspects of intra-day trading volume for equities and showcase them as an ensemble that projects volume in unison. We introduce econometric methods for predicting total and remaining daily volume, intra-day volume profile (u-curve), close auction volume and special day seasonalities and emphasize a need for a unified approach where all sub-models work consistently with one another. Historical and current inputs are combined using Bayesian methods, which have the advantage of providing adaptive and parameterless estimations of volume for a broad range of equities while automatically taking into account uncertainty of the model input components. The shortcomings of traditional statistical error metrics for calibrating volume prediction are also discussed and we introduce Asymmetrical Logarithmic Error (ALE) to overweight an overestimation risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Markov & Olga Vilenskaia & Vlad Rashkovich, 2019. "Quintet Volume Projection," Papers 1904.01412, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1904.01412
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian T. Brownlees & Fabrizio Cipollini & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2011. "Intra-daily Volume Modeling and Prediction for Algorithmic Trading," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 489-518, Summer.
    2. Francesco Calvori & Fabrizio Cipollini & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2014. "Go with the Flow: A GAS model for Predicting Intra-daily Volume Shares," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2014_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Feb 2014.
    3. Akash Gupta & Samik Metia & Prashant Trivedi, 2004. "The Effects of Option Expiration on NSE volume and prices," Finance 0411035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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