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Robustness of mathematical models and technical analysis strategies

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  • Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed
  • Gr'egoire Loeper
  • Fr'ed'eric Abergel

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to compare the performances of the optimal strategy under parameters mis-specification and of a technical analysis trading strategy. The setting we consider is that of a stochastic asset price model where the trend follows an unobservable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. For both strategies, we provide the asymptotic expectation of the logarithmic return as a function of the model parameters. Finally, numerical examples find that an investment strategy using the cross moving averages rule is more robust than the optimal strategy under parameters mis-specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed & Gr'egoire Loeper & Fr'ed'eric Abergel, 2016. "Robustness of mathematical models and technical analysis strategies," Papers 1605.00173, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1605.00173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed & Gr'egoire Loeper & Sofiene El Aoud & Fr'ed'eric Abergel, 2015. "Performance analysis of the optimal strategy under partial information," Papers 1510.03596, arXiv.org.
    6. Zhu, Yingzi & Zhou, Guofu, 2009. "Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 519-544, June.
    7. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
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    11. Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed & Gr'egoire Loeper & Fr'ed'eric Abergel, 2015. "Forecasting trends with asset prices," Papers 1504.03934, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2015.
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