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Systemic trade-risk of critical resources

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  • Peter Klimek
  • Michael Obersteiner
  • Stefan Thurner

Abstract

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis the role of strongly interconnected markets in fostering systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to deleterious cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade-risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. On a global and a regional level we show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of non-fuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the world-trade network of or spanned by these resources. On the global level we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource, as measured by its trade volume compared to extractable reserves, is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. On the regional level we find that to some extent the region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade-risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade-risk indicators are often those that are produced as byproducts of major metals. We identify significant shortcomings in the management of systemic trade-risk, in particular in the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Klimek & Michael Obersteiner & Stefan Thurner, 2015. "Systemic trade-risk of critical resources," Papers 1504.03508, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1504.03508
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    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Xiaoqian & Wang, Chao & Lim, Ming K. & Chen, Wei-Qiang, 2020. "Characteristics of the global copper raw materials and scrap trade systems and the policy impacts of China's import ban," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    2. Rebekka Burkholz & Hans J. Herrmann & Frank Schweitzer, 2018. "Explicit size distributions of failure cascades redefine systemic risk on finite networks," Papers 1802.03286, arXiv.org.

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