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Advancing the Analysis of Resilience of Global Phosphate Flows

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  • Matthias Raddant

    (Institute of Software Engineering and Artificial Intelligence, Graz University of Technology, 8010 Graz, Austria
    Department for Knowledge and Communication Management, University for Continuing Education Krems, 3500 Krems an der Donau, Austria
    Complexity Science Hub, 1030 Vienna, Austria)

  • Martin Bertau

    (Institute of Chemical Technology, Freiberg University of Mining and Technology, 09599 Freiberg, Germany
    Fraunhofer Institute for Ceramic Technologies and Systems IKTS, Fraunhofer Technology Center for High-Performance Materials THM, 09599 Freiberg, Germany
    Saxonian Academy of Sciences, 04107 Leipzig, Germany)

  • Gerald Steiner

    (Department for Knowledge and Communication Management, University for Continuing Education Krems, 3500 Krems an der Donau, Austria
    Complexity Science Hub, 1030 Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel method for estimating material flows, with a focus on tracing phosphate flows from mining countries to those using phosphate in agricultural production. Our approach integrates data on phosphate rock extraction, fertilizer use, and international trade of phosphate-related products. A key advantage of this method is that it does not require detailed data on material concentrations, as these are indirectly estimated within the model. We demonstrate that our model can reconstruct country-level phosphate flow matrices with a high degree of accuracy, thereby enhancing traditional material flow analyses. This method bridges the gap between conventional material flow analysis and the economic analysis of resilience of national supply chains, and it is applicable not only to phosphorus but also to other resource flows. We show how the estimated flows can support country-specific assessments of supply security: while global phosphate flows appear moderately concentrated, country-level analyses reveal significant disparities in import dependencies and, in some cases, substantially higher supplier concentration.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Raddant & Martin Bertau & Gerald Steiner, 2025. "Advancing the Analysis of Resilience of Global Phosphate Flows," Resources, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:14:y:2025:i:10:p:151-:d:1757268
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Naegler, Tobias & Rauner, Sebastian & Dirnaichner, Alois & Jochem, Patrick & Schlosser, Steffen & Luderer, Gunnar, 2025. "Raw material demand and geopolitical risk in carbon-neutral futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    2. Peter Klimek & Michael Obersteiner & Stefan Thurner, 2015. "Systemic trade-risk of critical resources," Papers 1504.03508, arXiv.org.
    3. Wei-Qiang Chen & Zi-Jie Ma & Stefan Pauliuk & Tao Wang, 2019. "Physical and Monetary Methods for Estimating the Hidden Trade of Materials," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-13, May.
    4. Nikolay Khabarov & Michael Obersteiner, 2018. "Modeling Global Trade in Phosphate Rock within a Partial Equilibrium Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    5. Steiner, Gerald & Geissler, Bernhard & Watson, Ingrid & Mew, Michael C., 2015. "Efficiency developments in phosphate rock mining over the last three decades," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 105(PB), pages 235-245.
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