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Maximum drawdown, recovery, and momentum

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  • Jaehyung Choi

Abstract

We empirically test predictability on asset price by using stock selection rules based on maximum drawdown and its consecutive recovery. In various equity markets, monthly momentum- and weekly contrarian-style portfolios constructed from these alternative selection criteria are superior not only in forecasting directions of asset prices but also in capturing cross-sectional return differentials. In monthly periods, the alternative portfolios ranked by maximum drawdown measures exhibit outperformance over other alternative momentum portfolios including traditional cumulative return-based momentum portfolios. In weekly time scales, recovery-related stock selection rules are the best ranking criteria for detecting mean-reversion. For the alternative portfolios and their ranking baskets, improved risk profiles in various reward-risk measures also imply more consistent prediction on the direction of assets in future. In the Carhart four-factor analysis, higher factor-neutral intercepts for the alternative strategies are another evidence for the robust prediction by the alternative stock selection rules.

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  • Jaehyung Choi, 2014. "Maximum drawdown, recovery, and momentum," Papers 1403.8125, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1403.8125
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaehyung Choi & Hyangju Kim & Young Shin Kim, 2021. "Diversified reward-risk parity in portfolio construction," Papers 2106.09055, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    2. Khizar Qureshi & Tauhid Zaman, 2024. "Pairs Trading Using a Novel Graphical Matching Approach," Papers 2403.07998, arXiv.org.

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