Hedging Expected Losses on Derivatives in Electricity Futures Markets
We investigate the problem of pricing and hedging derivatives of Electricity Futures contract when the underlying asset is not available. We propose to use a cross hedging strategy based on the Futures contract covering the larger delivery period. A quick overview of market data shows a basis risk for this market incompleteness. For that purpose we formulate the pricing problem in a stochastic target form along the lines of Bouchard and al. (2008), with a moment loss function. Following the same techniques as in the latter, we avoid to demonstrate the uniqueness of the value function by comparison arguments and explore convex duality methods to provide a semi-explicit solution to the problem. We then propose numerical results to support the new hedging strategy and compare our method to the Black-Scholes naive approach.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Föllmer Hans & Penner Irina, 2006. "Convex risk measures and the dynamics of their penalty functions," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1/2006), pages 36, July.
- Lindell, Andreas & Raab, Mikael, 2009. "Strips of hourly power options--Approximate hedging using average-based forward contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 348-355, May.
- Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
- Hans FÃllmer & Peter Leukert, 2000. "Efficient hedging: Cost versus shortfall risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 117-146.
- Ludovic Moreau, 2011. "Stochastic target problems with controlled loss in jump diffusion models," Post-Print hal-00515522, HAL.
- Hans FÃllmer & Peter Leukert, 1999. "Quantile hedging," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 251-273.
- Mark Broadie & Paul Glasserman, 1996. "Estimating Security Price Derivatives Using Simulation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 269-285, February.
- Bruno Bouchard & Marcel Nutz, 2011. "Weak Dynamic Programming for Generalized State Constraints," Papers 1105.0745, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2012.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1401.8271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.