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On Infectious Model for Dependent Defaults

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  • Jia-Wen Gu
  • Wai-Ki Ching
  • Tak-Kuen Siu
  • Harry Zheng

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a two-sector Markovian infectious model, which is an extension of Greenwood's model. The central idea of this model is that the causality of defaults of two sectors is in both direction, which enrich dependence dynamics. The Bayesian Information Criterion is adopted to compare the proposed model with the two-sector model in credit literature using the real data. We find that the newly proposed model is statistically better than the model in past literature. We also introduce two measures: CRES and CRVaR to give risk evaluation of our model.

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  • Jia-Wen Gu & Wai-Ki Ching & Tak-Kuen Siu & Harry Zheng, 2013. "On Infectious Model for Dependent Defaults," Papers 1301.0186, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1301.0186
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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