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Credit contagion and risk management with multiple non-ordered defaults

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  • Younes Kchia
  • Martin Larsson

Abstract

The classical reduced-form and filtration expansion framework in credit risk is extended to the case of multiple, non-ordered defaults, assuming that conditional densities of the default times exist. Intensities and pricing formulas are derived, revealing how information driven default contagion arises in these models. We then analyze the impact of ordering the default times before expanding the filtration. While not important for pricing, the effect is significant in the context of risk management, and becomes even more pronounced for highly correlated and asymmetrically distributed defaults. Finally, we provide a general scheme for constructing and simulating the default times, given that a model for the conditional densities has been chosen.

Suggested Citation

  • Younes Kchia & Martin Larsson, 2011. "Credit contagion and risk management with multiple non-ordered defaults," Papers 1104.5272, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1104.5272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Umut Çetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Modeling Credit Risk With Partial Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 23, pages 579-590, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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