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Bayesian Model Choice of Grouped t-copula

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  • Xiaolin Luo
  • Pavel V. Shevchenko

Abstract

One of the most popular copulas for modeling dependence structures is t-copula. Recently the grouped t-copula was generalized to allow each group to have one member only, so that a priori grouping is not required and the dependence modeling is more flexible. This paper describes a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method under the Bayesian inference framework for estimating and choosing t-copula models. Using historical data of foreign exchange (FX) rates as a case study, we found that Bayesian model choice criteria overwhelmingly favor the generalized t-copula. In addition, all the criteria also agree on the second most likely model and these inferences are all consistent with classical likelihood ratio tests. Finally, we demonstrate the impact of model choice on the conditional Value-at-Risk for portfolios of six major FX rates.

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  • Xiaolin Luo & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2011. "Bayesian Model Choice of Grouped t-copula," Papers 1103.0606, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.0606
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter, 2004. "Estimating marginal likelihoods for mixture and Markov switching models using bridge sampling techniques," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 143-167, June.
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