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Probability distribution of returns in the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model

  • Giacomo Bormetti
  • Valentina Cazzola
  • Guido Montagna
  • Oreste Nicrosini
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    We analyze the problem of the analytical characterization of the probability distribution of financial returns in the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with stochastic volatility. In this model the prices are driven by a Geometric Brownian motion, whose diffusion coefficient is expressed through an exponential function of an hidden variable Y governed by a mean-reverting process. We derive closed-form expressions for the probability distribution and its characteristic function in two limit cases. In the first one the fluctuations of Y are larger than the volatility normal level, while the second one corresponds to the assumption of a small stationary value for the variance of Y. Theoretical results are tested numerically by intensive use of Monte Carlo simulations. The effectiveness of the analytical predictions is checked via a careful analysis of the parameters involved in the numerical implementation of the Euler-Maruyama scheme and is tested on a data set of financial indexes. In particular, we discuss results for the German DAX30 and Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50, finding a good agreement between the empirical data and the theoretical description.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0805.0540
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 0805.0540.

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    Date of creation: May 2008
    Date of revision: Oct 2008
    Publication status: Published in J. Stat. Mech. (2008) P11013
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0805.0540
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. Josep Perello & Ronnie Sircar & Jaume Masoliver, 2008. "Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model," Papers 0804.2589, arXiv.org, revised May 2008.
    2. E. Cisana & L. Fermi & G. Montagna & O. Nicrosini, 2007. "A Comparative Study of Stochastic Volatility Models," Papers 0709.0810, arXiv.org.
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