Mapping the Decision-Making Landscape of Deep-Sea Mining in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction

Mining of the seabed in areas beyond national jurisdiction ('the Area') raises considerable governance questions for the International Seabed Authority as negotiations on mining regulations progress. To operationalize the principles enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea through rules, regulations, and procedures for deep-sea mining, legally consistent decisions on exploitation that balance political and economic interests, environmental protection, and equity must be taken under substantial scientific and economic uncertainty. This article examines the decision-making environment for polymetallic nodule mining through 22 expert interviews and a co-created causal loop diagram. The analysis identifies three reinforcing subsystems shaping the deep-sea mining decision environment: economic and political demand, contestation over socio-ecological governance principles, and the production of knowledge. It also highlights a stewardship dynamic centered on regulatory stringency, thresholds, and adaptive governance. The findings show that knowledge production is a policy arena in itself, and that decision-making is shaped not only by technical uncertainty, but also by contested values, strategic narratives, and feedbacks that reinforce investment, advocacy, and disagreement between stakeholders over risk perception. By mapping these interactions, our research offers a systems-based account of the forces that shape negotiations as a shared reference point for policymakers that might support the design of more adaptive, transparent, and feedback-informed governance of deep-sea mining in the Area.