Long-Term Growth in U.S. Cheese Consumption May Slow

Cheese production and markets have emerged as important elements of the dairy industry over the past three decades. Three approaches were taken to assess factors affecting U.S. cheese consumption. The first showed the upward trend in total cheese consumption over time in a supply-and-use framework. The second approach examined consumption using selected demographic and economic factors and Nielsen 2005 Homescan data. Income, age, racial/ethnic factors, location, and gender influence cheese consumption in different, but significant, ways. Lastly, an analysis of Nielsen 2005 retail Homescan survey data was used to estimate cheese demand and expenditure elasticities. Own-price elasticities for all cheese products were statistically significant and elastic. Expenditure elasticities for all cheese products were also statistically significant, but only expenditures for American, cottage, and other cheeses were found to be elastic. The current White majority (the major consumers of cheese) of the population is expected to shrink as other groups grow in size. So, while U.S. per capita cheese consumption has more than doubled since the mid-1970s, future growth may slow as the U.S. population changes.