IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/tamfsr/257919.html

Evaluation of Uncertainties Affecting Policy Decision of the 1988 Cotton Program

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Dean T.
  • Anderson, Carl G.

Abstract

Key uncertainties of the cotton industry, such as yield per acre, domestic mill consumption, and export sales, are evaluated using a microcomputer- based econometric model, AGGIES/Cotton (AGricultural Globally Integrated Econometric System), to generate a baseline forecast and alternative scenarios for the 1988/89 crop year. Various discretionary provisions of the 1988/89 cotton program are analyzed in relation to these simulation results. Effects of uncertainties are discussed with respect to alternative production and demand projections in relation to a carryover stock target of 4 million bales, as specified by the 1985 farm legislation and deviations from this target. An econometric model can best be utilized in the policy process for a baseline economic projection, impact simulation of alternative economic outcomes, and evaluation of policy response to uncertainties. The most useful model application to the cotton industry, under the existing program of marketing loan and the dynamic transitions in the world market, is to forecast major market trends and evaluate the areas of uncertainty for policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Dean T. & Anderson, Carl G., "undated". "Evaluation of Uncertainties Affecting Policy Decision of the 1988 Cotton Program," Staff Reports 257919, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:tamfsr:257919
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.257919
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/257919/files/magr-texasam-106.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.257919?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glaser, Lewrene K., 1986. "Provisions of the Food Security Act of 1985," Agricultural Information Bulletins 309344, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
    3. Usa Ers, 1984. "Situation and Outlook," Food Review/ National Food Review, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 0(01), March.
    4. Lawrence R. Klein, 1981. "The value of models in policy analysis," Proceedings – Rural and Agricultural Conferences, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Dean T. & Anderson, Carl G., "undated". "Cotton Market Responses to 1985 Food Security Act, Dollar Devaluation and U.S. Weather Disturbances," Research Reports 257904, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Dean T. & Anderson, Carl G., "undated". "Cotton Market Responses to 1985 Food Security Act, Dollar Devaluation and U.S. Weather Disturbances," Research Reports 257904, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
    2. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    3. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Hoffman, Linwood A. & Livezey, Janet, 1987. "The U.S. Oats Industry," Agricultural Economic Reports 305462, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    6. Bharat Trehan, 1986. "Oil prices, exchange rates and the U.S. economy: an empirical investigation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 25-43.
    7. repec:ers:journl:v:volumexxi:y:2018:i:issue4:p:622-636 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    9. Gideon O. Fadiran & Adebisi Edun, 2013. "An Overview of the Repo Rate in an Inflation Targeting Economy," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 621-635.
    10. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 2019. "Practical policy evaluation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 29-45.
    11. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2011. "State-Dependent Probability Distributions in Non Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers hal-03461407, HAL.
    12. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 952-964, August.
    13. Jean-Pierre Cling & François Meunier, 1986. "La désinflation en France : le point de vue de l'économètre," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(6), pages 1093-1125.
    14. Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2017. "Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    15. repec:ags:aesdoc:204910 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Clarida, Richard H & Friedman, Benjamin M, 1984. "The Behavior of U.S. Short-Term Interest Rates since October 1979," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 671-682, July.
    17. Müller, Christian, 2012. "A new interpretation of known facts: The case of two-way causality between trading and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 664-670.
    18. Mark Wheeler & Susan Pozo, 1997. "Is the world economy more integrated today than a century ago?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 139-154, June.
    19. Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Learning and Monetary Policy Shifts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 392-419, April.
    20. Alessio Moneta, 2005. "Causality in macroeconometrics: some considerations about reductionism and realism," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 433-453.
    21. Wasanth Madurapperuma & Ruwan Higgoda, 2020. "Air-Transportation, Tourism And Economic Growth Interactions In Sri Lanka: Cointegration And Causality Analysis," International Journal of Business and Management, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 8(1), pages 85-107, May.
    22. Richard H. Clarida & Diane Coyle, 1984. "Conditional Projection by Means of Kalman Filtering," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 702, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:tamfsr:257919. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aftamus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.