An economic assessment of U.S. ground beef in response to the introduction of plant-based meat alternatives

Red-meat has been criticized as detrimental to both the environment and human health, leading to a push in the U.S. for consumers to reduce red-meat consumption. Plant-based meat alternatives (MA) have been shown to have reduced environmental impacts compared to red-meat and have been presented as promising alternatives to red-meat. While MA may provide viable replacements for ground beef (GB), specifically, they do not replace the actual source of GB, cattle. Cattle production is a vital part of the U.S. food supply chain and plays an important role in the economy. As such, the goal of the present research was to perform a comprehensive assessment of the economic impacts associated with a reduction in GB consumption in response to increased MA consumption in the U.S. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) was used to model GB production in the U.S. While there was a cattle meat sector in GTAP, there was not a unique sector for GB. SplitCom was used to disaggregate the cattle meat sector into two sectors: (1) GB and (2) other beef products (OB). GTAP then was aggregated into 19 sectors, 3 regions (the U.S., primary U.S. beef import countries, and rest of world), and 6 factors of production. As the private household budget share for GB 0.31%, the investigated reductions in consumer demand (1, 5, 10, and 15%) did not greatly impact overall economic output. Even at 15% reduction in GB, most sectors experienced minor changes in terms of price or quantity demanded. Most notably, land use and price for cattle (CTL) was reduced by 2.89% and 4.78%, respectively. Agricultural labor and capital were reduced by nearly 10% each for GB and 4% each for CTL. While these results do not account for the economic effects of a corresponding increase in consumer demand for MA, it is unlikely that more significant changes would be observed. Further analysis on this topic is needed to understand the economic impacts of a reduction in GB paired with a corresponding increase in MA.