Commodities demand growth and its impacts on deforestation and CO2 emissions in the Brazilian Amazon region

Brazil is one of a small group of countries which accounts for most of the global exports in agricultural commodities. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimated that Brazilian soybean exports would increase by 18%, beef exports would grow by 49% and biodiesel would increase by 37% from 2018 to 2027. Historically, those activities are considered important drivers of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Considering the increasing in recent deforestation rates, it is important to study the consequences of these scenario over land use change and CO2 emissions. To achieve this goal, we use an interregional dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) for 30 regions in the Amazon and the rest of Brazil with a land use module. The results suggest that between 2018 and 2030 total deforestation could increase by 136,403 km2 in the baseline scenario and more 10,887 km2 because of the growing commodities. However, in a scenario with Soy Moratorium deforestation would be smaller, around 10,340 km2 relative to the baseline. That means a reduction of 29 MtCO2, with marginal economic impacts. In a scenario of zero deforestation, regional economic impacts would be greater. However, there would be a reduction of almost 7,000 MtCO2.