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The Uncertain Future of Biofuels in China and the Impacts on the Food-Land-Water Nexus: A Multi-scale Analysis

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  • Wang, Zhan
  • Liu, Jing
  • Hertel, Thomas

Abstract

With biofuel’s co-benefits of relieving dependence on fossil fuel and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it would be increasingly important to expand the consumption of biofuel in order to achieve sustainable development. By far, China has set up ambitious targets on improving its biofuel usage. However, considering future socio-economic development, impacts of biofuel expansion on China’s crop production and input use remains uncertain. To address this question with an integrated analytical framework, we developed the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use and the Environment: Gridded version for China (SIMPLE-G-China), a partial equilibrium model following the global-local-global approach, to research the impact of biofuel demand on China’s crop production and inputs use. Based on simulations of four policy scenarios projecting to 2040, it is found that the increased demand of crop as food sector inputs and technology improvement are key factors for future crop production and input use in China, while impacts from biofuel expansion would be moderate. Also, the model shows the spatial variance of impacts on crop production, land and water use. Findings from this study would provide insights for government to formulate more efficient biofuel policies, improve policy assessment, and facilitate stakeholder’s decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Zhan & Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas, 2020. "The Uncertain Future of Biofuels in China and the Impacts on the Food-Land-Water Nexus: A Multi-scale Analysis," Conference papers 333177, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333177
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333177/files/10130.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas W. & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris Lantz C. & Grogan, Danielle S. & Frolking, Steve, 2017. "Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Security and Land Use," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258118, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Balat, Mustafa & Balat, Havva, 2009. "Recent trends in global production and utilization of bio-ethanol fuel," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(11), pages 2273-2282, November.
    3. Yang, Hong & Zhou, Yuan & Liu, Junguo, 2009. "Land and water requirements of biofuel and implications for food supply and the environment in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1876-1885, May.
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