IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ncrtwo/19062.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk Aversion, Uncertainty Aversion, And Variation Aversion In Applied Commodity Price Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Frechette, Darren L.
  • Wen, Fang-I

Abstract

Standard models of hedging behavior assume that either hedgers wish to minimize net price variation or they wish to balance variation versus profits. These models treat variation as risk and fail to distinguish between variation that is random and variation that is not random over time. Newer models of decision making differentiate between random and nonrandom variation somewhat, but they inadequately distinguish variation from risk. This paper reviews the distinctions among variation, uncertainty, and risk and calculates optimal hedge ratios for two models addressing the distinction. Empirical optimal hedge ratios typically decline toward zero when variation aversion is included in the models. These results may help explain why hedgers commonly hedge less than recommended by the standard models.

Suggested Citation

  • Frechette, Darren L. & Wen, Fang-I, 2002. "Risk Aversion, Uncertainty Aversion, And Variation Aversion In Applied Commodity Price Analysis," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19062, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtwo:19062
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/19062/files/cp02fr01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.19062?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    2. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    3. Moschini, Giancarlo & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "Uncertainty, risk aversion, and risk management for agricultural producers," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 88-153, Elsevier.
    4. Philippe Weil, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42.
    5. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Peter J. Barry & Lindon J. Robison & Gilbert V. Nartea, 1996. "Changing Time Attitudes in Intertemporal Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 972-981.
    7. Lence, Sergio H., 2000. "Using Consumption and Asset Return Data to Estimate Farmersï¾’ Time Preferences and Risk Attitudes," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1930, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Keith C. Knapp & Lars J. Olson, 1996. "Dynamic Resource Management: Intertemporal Substitution and Risk Aversion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 1004-1014.
    9. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
    10. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    11. Darren L. Frechette, 2000. "The Demand for Hedging and the Value of Hedging Opportunities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 897-907.
    12. Koskievic, Jean-Max, 1999. "An intertemporal consumption-leisure model with non-expected utility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 285-289, September.
    13. Tuthill, Jonathan W. & Frechette, Darren L., 2002. "Non-Expected Utility Theories: Weighted Expected, Rank Dependent, And Cumulative Prospect Theory Utility," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19073, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    14. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
    15. Sergio H. Lence, 2000. "Using Consumption and Asset Return Data to Estimate Farmers' Time Preferences and Risk Attitudes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 934-947.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard E. Howitt & Siwa Msangi & Arnaud Reynaud & Keith C. Knapp, 2005. "Estimating Intertemporal Preferences for Natural Resource Allocation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 969-983.
    2. Smith, William & Son, Young Seob, 2005. "Can the desire to conserve our natural resources be self-defeating?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 52-67, January.
    3. Howitt, Richard E. & Reynaud, Arnaud & Msangi, Siwa & Knapp, Keith C., 2002. "Calibrated Stochastic Dynamic Models for Resource Management," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19620, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2022. "Relative Risk Aversion: A Meta-Analysis," MetaArXiv b8uhe, Center for Open Science.
    5. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Smith, William T., 2006. "Equilibrium consumption and precautionary savings in a stochastically growing economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 243-278, February.
    6. Minh Ha-Duong & Nicolas Treich, 1999. "Recursive Intergenerational Utility in Global Climate Risk Modeling," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-40, CIRANO.
    7. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    8. Wang, H. Holly & Du, Wen, 2005. "Intertemporal Risk Management Decisions of Farmers under Preference, Market, and Policy Dynamics," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Arif Oduncu, 2012. "Determinants of Precautionary Savings: Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution vs. Risk Aversion," EcoMod2012 4380, EcoMod.
    10. Roche, Hervé, 2011. "Asset prices in an exchange economy when agents have heterogeneous homothetic recursive preferences and no risk free bond is available," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 80-96, January.
    11. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2021. "Progressive taxation and (in)stability in an exogenous growth model with Epstein-Zin recursive preferences," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 64(1), pages 51-68.
    12. Giuliano, Paola & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2003. "Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and economic performance in a stochastically growing open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 529-556, August.
    13. Clemens, Christiane & Heinemann, Maik, 2015. "Endogenous growth and wealth inequality under incomplete markets and idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 300-317.
    14. Larry G. Epstein & Emmanuel Farhi & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2014. "How Much Would You Pay to Resolve Long-Run Risk?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2680-2697, September.
    15. Dario Caldara & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Wen Yao, 2009. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    16. Qiang Zhang, 2004. "Accounting for Human Capital and Weak Identification in Evaluating the Esptein-Zin-Weil Non-Expected Utility Model of Asset Pricing," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-289, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    17. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2021. "An RBC model with Epstein-Zin (non-expected-utility) recursive preferences: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2018)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue forthcomi.
    18. AJ A. Bostian & Christoph Heinzel, 2018. "Comparative precautionary saving under higher-order risk and recursive utility," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 43(1), pages 95-114, May.
    19. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Rodríguez, Rosa, 2006. "On the economic link between asset prices and real activity," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063209, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtwo:19062. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dauiuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.