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Sources of Errors In USDA’s Net Cash Income Forecasts

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  • Massa, Olga Isengildina
  • Karali, Berna
  • Kuethe, Todd
  • Katchova, Ani

Abstract

This study evaluates the accuracy of net cash income (NCI) forecasts and its components in order to track down the main sources of errors in NCI forecasts over 1986-2017. Specifically, we examine the bias as well as the correlation between errors in net cash income forecasts and in forecasts of its components for each forecasting horizon. Our findings suggest that long term NCI forests underestimate the official estimate. Crop receipts forecasts appear to be the main source of this bias as underestimation in crop receipts persists throughout the forecasting cycle. The main contributors to NCI forecast errors are errors in expenses and in crop and livestock receipts. Errors for all components except farm related income tend to decline over the forecasting cycle. There is not much evidence of forecast errors becoming larger or smaller over time. These findings identify potential areas for improvement in USDA’s NCI forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Massa, Olga Isengildina & Karali, Berna & Kuethe, Todd & Katchova, Ani, 2019. "Sources of Errors In USDA’s Net Cash Income Forecasts," 2019 Conference, April 15-16, 2019, Minneapolis, Minnesota 309630, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:n13419:309630
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.309630
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    1. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-127, June.
    2. Kuethe, Todd H. & Hubbs, Todd & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Evaluating the USDA’s Net Farm Income Forecast," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(3), September.
    3. Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1998. "Trends In The Accuracy Of Usda Production Forecasts For Beef And Pork," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2013. "When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5086-5103, December.
    5. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 884-918, October.
    6. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, August.
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