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Analyzing Climate Change Precipitation Effects on Irrigated Agriculture: Why Temporal Resolution Matters?

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  • Torres, M.
  • Howitt, R.
  • Rodrigues, L.

Abstract

Fluctuations in water availability, either in the form of precipitation or stored water in surface and groundwater bodies, will affect agricultural productivity and farmers income. Climate science tells us that much of these fluctuations will be in the form of shifts in the timing and intensity of precipitation. Understanding these relationships and the accurate estimation of their economic effects may, therefore, help in the designing of effective agricultural public policies to mitigate drought and climate change impacts on agriculture. In this context, this paper introduces a novel hydro-economic model in which the timing of rainfall and supplementary irrigated water supplies affect the productivity of a partially irrigated agricultural system. The specification of the production function and water availability is designed to reflect shifts in monthly precipitation totals and to show how the opportunity cost of supplementary irrigation supply varies with changes in the timing of precipitation. Results show that shifts in monthly precipitation parterns have indeed significant impacts on agricutltural income and that the coarser the temporal resolution that the modeler chooses, the lower is her ability to precisely measure them. Acknowledgement :

Suggested Citation

  • Torres, M. & Howitt, R. & Rodrigues, L., 2018. "Analyzing Climate Change Precipitation Effects on Irrigated Agriculture: Why Temporal Resolution Matters?," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276947, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:276947
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.276947
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/276947/files/235.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    2. Shuaizhang Feng & Michael Oppenheimer & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States," NBER Working Papers 17734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. F. Daniel Hidalgo & Suresh Naidu & Simeon Nichter & Neal Richardson, 2010. "Economic Determinants of Land Invasions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 505-523, August.
    4. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 329-342.
    5. Olayide, Olawale Emmanuel & Tetteh, Isaac Kow & Popoola, Labode, 2016. "Differential impacts of rainfall and irrigation on agricultural production in Nigeria: Any lessons for climate-smart agriculture?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 30-36.
    6. Torres, Marcelo de O. & Maneta, Marco & Howitt, Richard & Vosti, Stephen A. & Wallender, Wesley W. & Bassoi, Luís H. & Rodrigues, Lineu N., 2012. "Economic impacts of regional water scarcity in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil: an application of a linked hydro-economic model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 227-248, April.
    7. Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-3760, December.
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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

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