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The Identification Of Enemy Intentions Through Observation Of Long Lead-Time Military Preparations

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  • Lipow, Jonathan
  • Plessner, Yakir

Abstract

Intuitively, we would expect that an increase in the military preparations of potential enemies imply that the rival perceives an increase in the likelihood of future conflict. In this paper, we present a simple model that suggests that, surprisingly, the relationship is ambiguous. We find that (a) the specification of the social utility function; and (b) the rate of substitution between long and short lead-time preparations in the production of defense capability play a role in determining whether rivals respond to an increased future threat, by increasing or decreasing their long lead-time preparations.

Suggested Citation

  • Lipow, Jonathan & Plessner, Yakir, 2001. "The Identification Of Enemy Intentions Through Observation Of Long Lead-Time Military Preparations," Discussion Papers 14978, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:huaedp:14978
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.14978
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rogerson, William P, 1990. "Quality vs. Quantity in Military Procurement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 83-92, March.
    2. Feinerman, Eli & Lipow, Jonathan, 2001. "Is there a bias toward excessive quality in defense procurement?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 143-148, April.
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