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Tandem Forecasting of Price and Probability -- the Case of Watermelon

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  • Epperson, James E.
  • Fletcher, Stanley M.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to show how probability prediction can be incorporated with price prediction to enhance the usefulness of' forecast information and provide greater intuitive appeal in its use. Empirical application encompasses forecasting in the watermelon industry to demonstrate the power and appeal of the approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Epperson, James E. & Fletcher, Stanley M., 1984. "Tandem Forecasting of Price and Probability -- the Case of Watermelon," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 278721, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea84:278721
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278721
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278721/files/aaea-1984-005.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wall, G. Bryan & Tilley, Daniel S., 1979. "Production Responses And Price Determination In The Florida Watermelon Industry," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-4, July.
    2. Oliveira, Ronald A. & O'Connor, Carl W. & Smith, Gary W., 1979. "Short-Run Forecasting Models Of Beef Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, July.
    3. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-959, July.
    4. Menkhaus, Dale J. & Adams, Richard M., 1981. "Forecasting Price Movements: An Application Of Discriminant Analysis," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 6(2), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Wall, G. Bryan & Tilley, Daniel S., 1979. "Production Responses and Price Determination in the Florida Watermelon Industry," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 153-156, July.
    6. Richard E. Just & Gordon C. Rausser, 1981. "Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 197-208.
    7. Ferris, John N., 1982. "Probability Forecasts on U.S. Corn Prices," Staff Paper Series 200644, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    8. Dan M. Bechter & Jack L. Rutner, 1978. "Forecasting with statistical models and a case study of retail sales," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 63(Mar), pages 3-11.
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    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Merritt J. & Lu, Wenhua & Duthie, James A & Roberts, B. Warren & Edelson, Jonathan V., 2003. "Effects Of High And Low Management Intensity On Profitability For Three Watermelon Genotypes," 2003 Annual Meeting, February 1-5, 2003, Mobile, Alabama 35067, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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