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Climate Variability and Drought: Quantifying Impacts on Cattle Stocking Rates and Agricultural Land Use Patterns

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Listed:
  • Akat, Shara
  • Mieno, Taro
  • Dennis. Elliott

Abstract

Cattle stocking rate is a key decision in grazing management, influencing forage use, ecosystem resilience, and rangeland sustainability. This study investigates how drought conditions and hay availability affect stocking rates across the U.S. Using county-level panel data from 1982 to 2022, we estimate a fixed-effects model incorporating current and lagged drought indices, agroclimatic variables, and hay stocks. Results show that water deficits significantly reduce stocking rates, with effects persisting into the following year. Lower hay stocks are also associated with reduced stocking, indicating producers adjust stocking intensity in response to feed constraints. We project future stocking rates under CMIP6 climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) through 2099. Projections show gradual declines under RCP 4.5 and sustained reductions under RCP 8.5, especially after mid-century. These findings highlight the vulnerability of grazing systems to climate change and the need for adaptive management to maintain livestock productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Akat, Shara & Mieno, Taro & Dennis. Elliott, 2025. "Climate Variability and Drought: Quantifying Impacts on Cattle Stocking Rates and Agricultural Land Use Patterns," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360774, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:360774
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360774
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John P. Ritten & W. Marshall Frasier & Christopher T. Bastian & Stephen T. Gray, 2010. "Optimal Rangeland Stocking Decisions Under Stochastic and Climate-Impacted Weather," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1242-1255.
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