Identifying a Path Forward: Evaluating Ranch Socio-Economic Sustainability and Impacts on Ranch Succession Planning

In many rural communities across the western U.S. the economic activities, supply of human capital, and social community cohesion are a byproduct of local ranching operations. A holistic understanding of the interconnected social, ecological, and economic systems, along with a balanced assessment of their outputs, is essential for accurately evaluating the role of ranches in these systems. A critically needed outcome of analyzing this interconnectivity is the ability to assess and compare pathways for land succession planning as the average age of ranch operators has steadily increased and many ranches are facing difficulty operating past the current generation. In this paper we highlight the need for robust modelling framework, beyond the existing cow-calf ranch-level models, to understand the long-term viability of ranching in the context of complex tradeoffs of land use, economics, and social wellbeing. We evaluate three major inputs required for such a model: exogenous variables, ecosystem services, and community archetypes. We then synthesize the current state of the science for modeling each input as well as the challenges faced by those advancing the science. In addition to modeling current ranches and their contributions to local communities, barriers to land succession can be identified and impacts of succession failure can be quantified. Such a framework is necessary to properly evaluate potential solutions to set the next generation of ranch operators up for success and promote the continued health of rural communities.