Environmental Economics and Policy - Carbon Policy

In response to the global push for low‐carbon development and the persistent tension between economic growth and ecological goals in developing countries, China launched the Low-Carbon City Pilot (LCCP) policy in 2010 to explore potential synergies between environmental regulation and economic performance. This study treats the LCCP policy as a quasi‐natural experiment to evaluate its average treatment effect on foreign direct investment (FDI) and to analyze its spatial spillover effects and underlying mechanisms. Using panel data for 282 prefecture‐level cities from 2005 to 2021, we employ staggered difference‐in‐differences and spatial difference‐in‐differences methods. Our findings indicate that the LCCP policy significantly deters FDI in pilot cities, lending support to the pollution haven hypothesis. A mechanism analysis identifies four pathways: induced green technological innovation, strengthened environmental governance, an optimized foreign investment structure, and public behavior-driven. Notably, the LCCP policy generates positive spillovers by stimulating FDI in adjacent cities. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the negative impacts are more pronounced in growing and mature resource‐based cities, as well as in the eastern and central regions of China. These results suggest that, while environmental regulations may discourage FDI in the short run, they can effectively foster spatial cooperation and industry restructuring that promote sustainable development.