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Revisitando las ventajas de la incumbencia: Descomponiendo el efecto de los límites a la reelección

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  • Raimo Augusto

Abstract

Este trabajo estudia los efectos de la incumbencia sobre la ventaja electoral del partido. A partir de que en la amplia literatura sobre la materia no se hace distinción de dos tratamiento que han probado tener un impacto significativo sobre variables políticas y económicas de interés, se propone una estimación por el método de fuzzy differences in discontinuities para descomponer el efecto de la incumbencia partidaria e individual, con el objetivo de generar estimaciones consistentes del impacto de los límites a la reelección sobre la ventaja partidaria. El contexto que se utiliza es el de las elecciones municipales brasileras, explotando el límite a dos mandatos consecutivos para los mandatarios (prefeitos). Se obtiene que las estimaciones previas de la (des)ventaja electoral que implican los límites a la reelección sobre la incumbencia subestima su efecto real, a partir de que a nivel partido se verifica en realidad una ventaja de la incumbencia.

Suggested Citation

  • Raimo Augusto, 2025. "Revisitando las ventajas de la incumbencia: Descomponiendo el efecto de los límites a la reelección," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4832, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4832
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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