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Life and Death During the First Six Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An analysis of cross-country differences in changes in quantity and quality of life

Author

Listed:
  • Lykke E. Andersen

    (Executive Director at SDSN Bolivia)

  • Alejandra Gonzales Rocabado

    (Assistant Director at SDSN Bolivia)

Abstract

This study carries out a cross-country analysis of changes in quantity and quality of life during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic (11 March to 11 September 2020) for 124 countries. Changes in quantity of life are measured as life years lost to COVID-19, including excess deaths not officially reported as COVID-19 deaths. Changes in quality of life are proxied by the average change in daily mobility, compared to a pre-COVID baseline. We find a significant negative correlation between the two, meaning that the countries with the biggest reductions in mobility are also the countries with the biggest losses of life years. We calculate that about 15 million life years were lost during the first six months of the pandemic, corresponding to 0.006% of all expected life years. For comparison, at least three times more life years are lost every six months due to children dying of diarrhea. About 28 million life years are created every day from babies being born, so the first six months of the pandemic set us back about 14 hours in terms of quantity of life. The setbacks in terms of quality of life are several orders of magnitude larger. Some countries have suffered more than a 50% reduction in mobility sustained over half a year, with devastating effects on many aspects of quality of life. Globally, the equivalent of 400 million full-time jobs were lost. GDP is estimated to have been set back about three years, poverty about five years, and the tourism industry about 20 years. The already large inequalities in access to quality education have been further widened, leaving hundreds of millions of disadvantaged children farther behind. Even countries that have managed the pandemic relatively well are suffering large economic contractions due to the negative spill-over effects from other countries. We still have a long way to go before this pandemic is over, and we urgently need to course-correct in order not to cause even more harm than has already been done. The paper provides a series of recommendations on what needs to be done to minimize total harm.

Suggested Citation

  • Lykke E. Andersen & Alejandra Gonzales Rocabado, 2020. "Life and Death During the First Six Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An analysis of cross-country differences in changes in quantity and quality of life," Development Research Working Paper Series 07/2020, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:202007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kroll, Christian & Zipperer, Vera, 2020. "Sustainable Development and Populism," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 176, pages 106723-1067.
    2. Dean Jolliffe & Espen Beer Prydz, 2016. "Estimating international poverty lines from comparable national thresholds," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(2), pages 185-198, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Sterck, Olivier & Mahler, Daniel G. & Decerf, Benoit, 2021. "Death and destitution: distribution of welfare losses from the Covid-19 pandemic," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110480, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Ferreira,Francisco H. G. & Sterck,Olivier Christian Brigitte & Mahler,Daniel Gerszon & Decerf,Benoit Marie A, 2021. "Death and Destitution : The Global Distribution of Welfare Losses from the COVID-19 Pandemic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9673, The World Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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