IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/acb/cbeeco/2025-707.html

Ambiguity-dominance in games

Author

Listed:
  • Evan M. Calford

Abstract

This paper introduces ambiguity-dominance as a novel equilibrium selection procedure that, in 2x2 games, unifies risk-dominance and payoffdominance as special cases. Ambiguity-dominance provides an intuitive answer to the question "Which equilibrium is most robust to ambiguous beliefs about the behavior of other players?" and is defined for all finite normal form games. Ambiguity-dominance is parametrized by players' ambiguity preference and, using data from three recent experiments we find, on aggregate, ambiguity loving coupled with substantial subject-level heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan M. Calford, 2026. "Ambiguity-dominance in games," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2025-707, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2025-707
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp707.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September.
    2. Lo, Kin Chung, 2009. "Correlated Nash equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 722-743, March.
    3. Chateauneuf, Alain & Eichberger, Jurgen & Grant, Simon, 2007. "Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 538-567, November.
    4. Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 2014. "Optimism And Pessimism In Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 483-505, May.
    5. John C. Harsanyi & Reinhard Selten, 1988. "A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582384, December.
    6. Ivanov, Asen, 2011. "Attitudes to ambiguity in one-shot normal-form games: An experimental study," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 366-394, March.
    7. Dal Bó, Pedro & Fréchette, Guillaume R. & Kim, Jeongbin, 2021. "The determinants of efficient behavior in coordination games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 352-368.
    8. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Chen Li & Peter P. Wakker, 2025. "Source Theory: A Tractable and Positive Ambiguity Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(10), pages 8767-8782, October.
    9. Cason, Timothy N. & Sharma, Tridib & Vadovič, Radovan, 2020. "Correlated beliefs: Predicting outcomes in 2 × 2 games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 256-276.
    10. Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 2014. "Optimism And Pessimism In Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(2), pages 483-505, May.
    11. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
    12. Ryan Kendall, 2022. "Decomposing coordination failure in stag hunt games," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1109-1145, September.
    13. Evan Calford & Ryan Oprea, 2017. "Continuity, Inertia, and Strategic Uncertainty: A Test of the Theory of Continuous Time Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 915-935, May.
    14. Evan M. Calford, 2026. "Randomization preference and the reversal of order axiom," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 111-135, February.
    15. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    16. Pedro Dal Bó & Guillaume R. Fréchette, 2018. "On the Determinants of Cooperation in Infinitely Repeated Games: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(1), pages 60-114, March.
    17. Jagau, Stephan, 2024. "To Catch a Stag: Identifying payoff- and risk-dominance effects in coordination games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 429-448.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-03005107 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bayer, Péter & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2024. "Optimism leads to optimality: Ambiguity in network formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. David Kelsey & Sara le Roux, 2018. "Strategic ambiguity and decision-making: an experimental study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 387-404, May.
    4. Calford, Evan, 2016. "Mixed Strategies in Games with Ambiguity Averse Agents," MPRA Paper 74909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Craig Webb, 2015. "Piecewise additivity for non-expected utility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(2), pages 371-392, October.
    6. Evan M. Calford & Gregory DeAngelo, 2023. "Ambiguity and enforcement," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 304-338, April.
    7. David Kelsey & Tigran Melkonyan, 2018. "Contests with ambiguity," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 1148-1169.
    8. Lorenz Hartmann & David Kelsey, 2024. "Location Invariance and Games with Ambiguity," Discussion Papers 2024-05, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    9. Calford, Evan M., 2020. "Uncertainty aversion in game theory: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 720-734.
    10. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-03590990 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chen, Hsiao-Chi & Liu, Shi-Miin, 2024. "Optimal investments of port authorities facing ambiguity on uncertain market demands," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    12. Amit Kothiyal & Vitalie Spinu & Peter Wakker, 2014. "An experimental test of prospect theory for predicting choice under ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-17, February.
    13. Stauber, Ronald, 2019. "A strategic product for belief functions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 38-64.
    14. Eddai, Nahed & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2023. "To mitigate or to adapt: How to deal with optimism, pessimism and strategic ambiguity?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 1-30.
    15. Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 2011. "Are the treasures of game theory ambiguous?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 48(2), pages 313-339, October.
    16. Dominiak, Adam & Eichberger, Jürgen, 2021. "Games in context: Equilibrium under ambiguity for belief functions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 125-159.
    17. Eichberger, Jürgen & Spanjers, Willy, 2007. "Liquidity and ambiguity : banks or asset markets?," Papers 07-18, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    18. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Chen Li & Peter P. Wakker, 2025. "Source Theory: A Tractable and Positive Ambiguity Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(10), pages 8767-8782, October.
    19. David Kelsey & Sara Roux, 2015. "An experimental study on the effect of ambiguity in a coordination game," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 79(4), pages 667-688, December.
    20. Nicolas Lampach & Kene Boun My & Sandrine Spaeter, 2016. "Risk, Ambiguity and Efficient Liability Rules: An experiment," Working Papers of BETA 2016-30, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    21. Boortz, Christopher, 2016. "Irrational exuberance and herding in financial markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-016, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    22. Daniel Laskar, 2013. "Ambiguity, Pessimism, Optimism and Financial Crises in a Simple Global Game Model," PSE Working Papers hal-00811923, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2025-707. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.