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Discricionariedade na Política Monetária Brasileira após o Plano Real: Um teste baseado na Correlação de Longo Prazo entre Inflação e Produto

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  • Eurilton Araújo
  • Talita Donha

Abstract

Esse trabalho procurou testar uma implicação empírica do modelo Barro e Gordon para a Economia Brasileira pós Plano Real com a intenção de avaliar se a Política Monetária Brasileira, após a implantação do Plano Real, foi discricionária ou pautada por regras. O teste foi realizado para alguns pares de proxies de atividade econômica e inflação. A evidência empírica encontrada representa um indício contrário à condução de uma política discricionária durante o período analisado, julho de 19994 a dezembro de 2006. Esta conclusão vale tanto para o regime de câmbio fixo quanto para o regime de metas de inflação. Ou seja, a coexistência de política monetária pautada por regras e estabilização é o cenário empiricamente mais plausível para o período analisado.

Suggested Citation

  • Eurilton Araújo & Talita Donha, 2008. "Discricionariedade na Política Monetária Brasileira após o Plano Real: Um teste baseado na Correlação de Longo Prazo entre Inflação e Produto," Business and Economics Working Papers 017, Unidade de Negocios e Economia, Insper.
    • Handle: RePEc:aap:wpaper:017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ireland, Peter N., 1999. "Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 279-291, October.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
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