A Duration Hidden Markov Model for the Identification of Regimes in Stock Market Returns
This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination of the different regimes and but also estimates the effect of the explanatory variables on the regimes' durations. The model is estimated here on NYSE returns using the short-term interest rate and the interest rate spread as exogenous variables. The bull market regime is assigned to the identified state with the higher mean and lower variance; bull market duration is found to be negatively dependent on short-term interest rates and positively on the interest rate spread, while bear market duration depends positively the short-term interest rate and negatively on the interest rate spread.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dueker, Michael J, 1997.
"Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Dueker(1997) Markov switching GARCH models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00048, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Markov switching in GARCH processes and mean reverting stock market volatility," Working Papers 1994-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aah:create:2010-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.