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Backward-looking analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Dolls, Mathias
  • Lewney, Richard

Abstract

We develop a new modelling approach combining micro and macro simulations to analyse distributional and stabilizing effects of a European Unemployment Benefit System (EUBS). We run counterfactual simulations based on micro data for the period 1995 to 2013 to estimate net contributions for different variants of EUBS across European member states. Our micro estimates are then used to feed the macro-econometric model in order to obtain counterfactual evolutions of income and unemployment. These new income and employment series are finally simulated again at the micro level. We compare results before and after taking account of the macroeconomic feedback effects and analyse the difference that the feedback effects make.

Suggested Citation

  • Dolls, Mathias & Lewney, Richard, 2017. "Backward-looking analysis," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 149873, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewexp:149873
    DOI: 10.2767/695426
    Note: This paper was written as part of Task 3B for the research project 'Feasibility and Added Value of a European Unemployment Benefit Scheme' (contract VC/2015/0006).
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Bargain & Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl & Nico Pestel & Sebastian Siegloch, 2013. "Fiscal union in Europe? Redistributive and stabilizing effects of a European tax-benefit system and fiscal equalization mechanism [A strong employment agenda – the pathway to economic recovery]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(75), pages 375-422.
    2. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl, 2018. "An unemployment insurance scheme for the euro area? A comparison of different alternatives using microdata," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(1), pages 273-309, February.
    3. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "Risk and potential insurance in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1237-1256, June.
    4. repec:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i::p:s177-s204 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Neumann, Dirk & Peichl, Andreas, 2014. "An Unemployment Insurance Scheme for the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:28:y:2013:i:75:p:375-422 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mariña Fernández Salgado & Francesco Figari & Holly Sutherland & Alberto Tumino, 2014. "Welfare Compensation for Unemployment in the Great Recession," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 177-204, May.
    8. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    9. Herwig Immervoll & Horacio Levy & Christine Lietz & Daniela Mantovani & Holly Sutherland, 2006. "The sensitivity of poverty rates to macro-level changes in the European Union," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 30(2), pages 181-199, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Léo Aparisi de Lannoy & Xavier Ragot, 2017. "Une (ré) assurance chômage européenne," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03455381, HAL.
    2. Léo Aparisi de Lannoy & Xavier Ragot, 2017. "Une (ré) assurance chômage européenne," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/69i5rbio799, Sciences Po.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5i0jcpu6sk96cpn76n8q0ie20c is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/69i5rbio799im94rhg5il9bvik is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European fiscal integration; unemployment insurance; automatic stabilizers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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