IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/zbw/iwkana/112.html

Ökonomische Konsequenzen eines Austritts aus der EU: Am Beispiel des Brexits

Author

Listed:
  • Busch, Berthold
  • Matthes, Jürgen

Abstract

In dieser IW-Analyse geht es um die positiven Wohlfahrtseffekte der EU-Integration, die am Beispiel der langfristigen Auswirkungen eines Brexits illustriert werden. Dazu werden wesentliche Studien zu den Auswirkungen eines Brexits kategorisiert und kurz vorgestellt. Die bis Anfang April 2016 publizierten belastbaren Ex-ante-Studien prognostizieren per saldo langfristige Nachteile für das austretende Vereinigte Königreich, allerdings nur in niedriger einstelliger Höhe. Die vorliegende Analyse hinterfragt deren Aussagekraft und warnt vor höheren Risiken: Zum einen sind die verwendeten Ex-ante-Modelle nicht in der Lage, alle wichtigen Wohlfahrtseffekte ökonomischer Integration einzubeziehen, die hier individuell empirisch belegt werden. Zum anderen weisen Ex-post-Studien, auch wenn sie individuell nicht immer zu robusten Ergebnissen kommen, deutlich größere Wohlfahrtseffekte der EU-Integration aus. Daher ist nach Ansicht der Autoren nicht auszuschließen, dass ein EU-Austritt des Vereinigten Königreichs in einem pessimistischeren Szenario per saldo langfristige negative BIP-Effekte in der Größenordnung von 10 Prozent oder mehr haben könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Busch, Berthold & Matthes, Jürgen, 2016. "Ökonomische Konsequenzen eines Austritts aus der EU: Am Beispiel des Brexits," IW-Analysen, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, volume 112, number 112.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkana:112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/157159/1/IW-Analyse-112.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francisco J. Buera & Ezra Oberfield, 2020. "The Global Diffusion of Ideas," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 83-114, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jürgen Matthes, 2020. "Technologietransfer durch Unternehmensübernahmen chinesischer Investoren [Technology Transfer Through Company Takeovers by Chinese Investors]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(8), pages 633-639, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumar, Sanjesh & Singh, Baljeet, 2019. "Barriers to the international diffusion of technological innovations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 74-86.
    2. Diemer, Andreas & Regan, Tanner, 2022. "No inventor is an island: Social connectedness and the geography of knowledge flows in the US," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    3. Geng Huang & Xi Lin & Shuying Xu & Junyu Wang & Ling‐Yun He, 2025. "Trade policy uncertainty, export destination, and firm's pollution emissions: Analysis from theoretical perspective," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(4), pages 2181-2189, June.
    4. Santiago Caicedo, 2019. "Note on Idea Diffusion Models with Cohort Structures," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(342), pages 396-408, April.
    5. Impullitti, Giammario & Akcigit, Ufuk & Ates, Sina T., 2018. "Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World," CEPR Discussion Papers 15804, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Yanqing Yang & Nan Zhang & Jinfeng Ge & Yan Xu, 2025. "Sino-US S and T Frictions and Transnational Knowledge Flows: Evidence from machine learning and cross-national patent data," Papers 2503.21822, arXiv.org.
    7. repec:isu:genstf:202001010800009179 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Li, Peiyuan & Wang, Dandan & Zafar, Quratulain & Waheed, Humayun, 2024. "Strategic resource management for economic sustainability: Assessing the impact of technological advancement and energy efficiency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Javier Mejia, 2018. "Social Interactions and Modern Economic Growth," Documentos CEDE 16379, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    10. Liao, Zhong-Wei & Shao, Jinghai, 2024. "Stability and mean growth rate of stochastic Solow model driven by jump–diffusion process," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    11. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    12. Gordon H. Hanson & Nelson Lind & Marc-Andreas Muendler, 2015. "The Dynamics of Comparative Advantage," CESifo Working Paper Series 5622, CESifo.
    13. Ivan Etzo & Sumiko Takaoka, 2025. "Environmental Innovation and International Migration of Inventors," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(3), pages 12193-12225, September.
    14. Hasan Alp Boz & Mohsen Bahrami & Selim Balcisoy & Burcin Bozkaya & Nina Mazar & Aaron Nichols & Alex Pentland, 2024. "Investigating neighborhood adaptability using mobility networks: a case study of the COVID-19 pandemic," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Peter Egger & Reto Foellmi & Ulrich Schetter & David Torun, 2023. "Gravity with History: On Incumbency Effects in International Trade," Growth Lab Working Papers 219, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    16. Francisco J. Buera & Ezra Oberfield, 2020. "The Global Diffusion of Ideas," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 83-114, January.
    17. Schetter, Ulrich & Schneider, Maik T. & Jäggi, Adrian, 2024. "Inequality, openness, and growth through creative destruction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    18. Georg Duernecker & Moritz Meyer & Fernando Vega‐Redondo, 2022. "Trade openness and growth: A network‐based approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1182-1203, September.
    19. Bai, Yan & Jin, Keyu & Lu, Dan & Wang, Hanxi, 2025. "Optimal trade policy with international technology diffusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    20. Albrecht Glitz & Erik Meyersson, 2020. "Industrial Espionage and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1055-1103, April.
    21. Damián Migueles Chazarreta & Ignat Stepanok, 2025. "Intellectual property rights protection and the dynamic gains from trade," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(2), pages 445-495, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkana:112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkolde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.