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Ökonomische Konsequenzen eines Austritts aus der EU: Am Beispiel des Brexits

Author

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  • Busch, Berthold
  • Matthes, Jürgen

Abstract

In dieser IW-Analyse geht es um die positiven Wohlfahrtseffekte der EU-Integration, die am Beispiel der langfristigen Auswirkungen eines Brexits illustriert werden. Dazu werden wesentliche Studien zu den Auswirkungen eines Brexits kategorisiert und kurz vorgestellt. Die bis Anfang April 2016 publizierten belastbaren Ex-ante-Studien prognostizieren per saldo langfristige Nachteile für das austretende Vereinigte Königreich, allerdings nur in niedriger einstelliger Höhe. Die vorliegende Analyse hinterfragt deren Aussagekraft und warnt vor höheren Risiken: Zum einen sind die verwendeten Ex-ante-Modelle nicht in der Lage, alle wichtigen Wohlfahrtseffekte ökonomischer Integration einzubeziehen, die hier individuell empirisch belegt werden. Zum anderen weisen Ex-post-Studien, auch wenn sie individuell nicht immer zu robusten Ergebnissen kommen, deutlich größere Wohlfahrtseffekte der EU-Integration aus. Daher ist nach Ansicht der Autoren nicht auszuschließen, dass ein EU-Austritt des Vereinigten Königreichs in einem pessimistischeren Szenario per saldo langfristige negative BIP-Effekte in der Größenordnung von 10 Prozent oder mehr haben könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Busch, Berthold & Matthes, Jürgen, 2016. "Ökonomische Konsequenzen eines Austritts aus der EU: Am Beispiel des Brexits," IW-Analysen, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, volume 112, number 112.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkana:112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francisco J. Buera & Ezra Oberfield, 2020. "The Global Diffusion of Ideas," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 83-114, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jürgen Matthes, 2020. "Technologietransfer durch Unternehmensübernahmen chinesischer Investoren [Technology Transfer Through Company Takeovers by Chinese Investors]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(8), pages 633-639, August.

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