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El impacto del cambio climático en la pobreza infantil y juvenil de América Latina

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Abstract

El cambio climático está transformando nuestra forma de vivir y también está redefiniendo el futuro de la infancia. En la región de América Latina y el Caribe, los niños, niñas, adolescentes y jóvenesⁱ enfrentan riesgos sin precedentes que amenazan no solo su presente, sino también sus oportunidades futuras. El cambio climático los afecta de manera desproporcionada, ya que son más vulnerables, tanto física como fisiológicamente, y tienen menos capacidad para soportar y sobrevivir a condiciones climáticas extremas como inundaciones, sequías, tormentas y olas de calor. Esta vulnerabilidad también se debe a su alta dependencia económica, la prevalencia de la pobreza y la falta de acceso a servicios esenciales para su desarrollo, como los de salud, nutrición, educación y protección social, lo que a su vez limita los recursos disponibles para hacer frente a un clima cambiante. A medida que estos impactos se intensifiquen se espera que estas tendencias se agudicen, pudiendo resultar en una vida de oportunidades perdidas. Este estudio analiza el impacto potencial del cambio climático sobre la incidencia de la pobreza infantil y juvenil en América Latina en 2030. Con base en datos de pobreza armonizados para 18 países de la región, los resultados muestran que el cambio climático provocará un aumento considerable de la pobreza infantil y juvenil en América Latina, aunque la magnitud final de este aumento dependerá (i) del escenario climático hacia el cuál el planeta se dirija y (ii) de las políticas públicas que la región implemente. En este documento se cuantifican los impactos del cambio climático bajo tres escenarios climáticos: Net Zero 2050, Políticas actuales y Muy poco, muy tarde. Estos escenarios reflejan los diferentes esfuerzos de reducción de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) a nivel global. En cada escenario, los impactos económicos del cambio climático contemplan los efectos crónicos relacionados con el aumento tendencial de las temperaturas, así como los efectos agudos asociados con cuatro tipos de eventos meteorológicos extremos: olas de calor, sequías, inundaciones y ciclones tropicales. Asimismo, se explora cómo una profundización de la desigualdad económica impulsada por los efectos del cambio climático –y reflejada por un aumento del coeficiente de Gini de distribución del ingreso– podría impactar la evolución de la pobreza infantil y juvenil (efecto cambio climático y desigualdad). En 2030, aún en un escenario en donde se implementen reducciones de emisiones de GEI ambiciosas y rápidas a nivel global (Net Zero 2050 ), se estima que el cambio climático podría empujar a la pobreza a 5.9 millones de niños, niñas, adolescentes y jóvenes adicionales a los ya existentes. Por el contrario, en un escenario de inacción climática (Muy poco, muy tarde ) , esta cifra podría triplicarse a 17.9 millones de niños, niñas, adolescentes y jóvenes adicionales. A modo de comparación, aproximadamente 11 millones de niños, niñas, adolescentes y jóvenes quedaron en situación de pobreza como resultado de la pandemia del COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • -, 2025. "El impacto del cambio climático en la pobreza infantil y juvenil de América Latina," Coediciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 82426 edited by Cepal.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col013:82426
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