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Cykl mieszkaniowy a system bankowy – przypadek Polski [ Housing Cycle v. Banking System – Poland’s Case ]

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Lissowska
  • Jolanta Szulfer

Abstract

Przedmiotem opracowania jest cykliczność rynku mieszkaniowego w Polsce i wyjaśnienie faktu, Ŝe przebieg cyklu mieszkaniowego nie doprowadził anido znacznej recesji na rynku mieszkaniowym, ani do złamania stabilnosci systemu bankowego. Tłem teoretycznym rozwaŜańjest mechanizm cyklu mieszkaniowego i tezy na temat wpływu kredytowania na cykl gospodarczy. Przedstawione zostały podstawowe przyczyny ryzykowności kredytowania mieszkalnictwa w Polsce: jego zdominowanie przez banki uniwersalne (poddane mniej restrykcyjnym zasadom działania niŜ hipoteczne), niepełna skutecznośćzabezpieczenia hipotecznego, niewłaściwa struktura terminowa finansowania mieszkalnictwa przez banki uniwersalne, duŜy zakres kredytowania w walutach obcych. Jednak z powodu trwałych czynników ograniczających podaŜ mieszkań i popyt na nie nie doszło do powstania nadmiernej „bańki cenowej” na tym rynku. Znaczącym czynnikiem ograniczającym amplitudę cyklu mieszkaniowego były cechy strukturalne polskiej bankowości: brak sekurytyzacji, wprowadzenie we właściwym czasie rekomendacji nadzoru finansowego, późne wystąpienie luki finansowania. Występuje jednak potrzeba rozwinięcia pozadepozytowych źródeł finansowania kredytów mieszkaniowcyh w bankach uniwersalnych. W perspektywie kilkuletniej moŜe być to sekurytyzacja, albo emisja listów zastawnych przez same banki uniwersalne, albo teŜ sprzedaŜ kredytów mieszkaniowych do banków hipotecznych.Tylko ostatnia z tych metod wystarczająco zabezpiecza przed nadmiernym rozwojem akcji kredytowej. [ The subject of the research paper is cyclical character of housing market in Poland and explanation to the fact that the housing market cycle has neither resulted in a significant recession in this market nor in collapse of the banking system. The setting for these theoretical considerations is the housing cycle mechanism as well as the theses regarding the impact of credit action on thebusiness cycle. The paper presents major reasons for risk factor in granting mortgage in Poland: creditors are mostly universal banks’, incomplete efficiency of collaterals, improper time structure of housing financing by universal banks and a widespread access to mortgages granted in foreign currencies. However, due to permanent impediments to both supply of and demand for apartments, the excessive ‘price bubble’ did not occur in this market. Moreover, a significant factor constraining the amplitude of the housing cycle has been structural features of the Polish banking system: lack of securitisation, implementing recommendations of financial supervision recommendations in timely manner, timedelayed occurrence of gap in financing. However, there is a need of enhancing pro-deposit sources of mortgage financing in universal banks. In several-years’ time span it could be securitisation, issuance of bills of exchange by the universal banks or sales of mortgages to mortgage banks. The latter is a sufficient protection against excessive growthof credit action. ]

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Lissowska & Jolanta Szulfer, 2012. "Cykl mieszkaniowy a system bankowy – przypadek Polski [ Housing Cycle v. Banking System – Poland’s Case ]," Prace i Materiały, Instytut Rozwoju Gospodarczego (SGH), vol. 88(1), pages 85-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsd:irgpim:v:88:y:2012:i:1:p:85-118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Over the Cliff: From the Subprime to the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 49-70, Winter.
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