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Ameliorating mental mistakes in tradeoff studies

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  • Eric D. Smith
  • Young Jun Son
  • Massimo Piattelli‐Palmarini
  • A. Terry Bahill

Abstract

Tradeoff studies are broadly recognized and mandated as the method for simultaneously considering multiple alternatives with many criteria, and as such are recommended in the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) Decision Analysis and Resolution (DAR) process. Tradeoff studies, which involve human numerical judgment, calibration, and data updating, are often approached with under confidence by analysts and are often distrusted by decision makers. The decision‐making fields of Judgment and Decision Making, Cognitive Science and Experimental Economics have built up a large body of research on human biases and errors in considering numerical and criteria‐based choices. Relationships between experiments in these fields and the elements of tradeoff studies show that tradeoff studies are susceptible to human mental mistakes: This paper indicates ways to eliminate the presence, or ameliorate the effects of mental mistakes on tradeoff studies. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 10: 222–240, 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Eric D. Smith & Young Jun Son & Massimo Piattelli‐Palmarini & A. Terry Bahill, 2007. "Ameliorating mental mistakes in tradeoff studies," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(3), pages 222-240, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:syseng:v:10:y:2007:i:3:p:222-240
    DOI: 10.1002/sys.20072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy D. Blackburn & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Shahram Sarkani, 2012. "Using a TRIZ framework for systems engineering trade studies," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 355-367, September.
    2. A. Terry Bahill, 2012. "Diogenes, a process for identifying unintended consequences," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 287-306, September.
    3. Eric D. Smith & A. Terry Bahill, 2010. "Attribute substitution in systems engineering," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(2), pages 130-148, June.
    4. L. Robin Keller & Craig W. Kirkwood & Nancy S. Jones, 2010. "Assessing stakeholder evaluation concerns: An application to the Central Arizona water resources system," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 58-71, March.

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