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Chapter 4: Development of the Counterfactual Smoking Histories Used to Assess the Effects of Tobacco Control

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  • Theodore R. Holford
  • Lauren Clark

Abstract

Publication of the Surgeon General's Report in 1964 marshaled evidence of the harm to public health caused by cigarette smoking, including lung cancer mortality, and provided an impetus for introducing control programs. The purpose of this article is to develop estimates of their effect on basic smoking exposure input parameters related to introduction of the report. Fundamental inputs used to generate exposure to cigarettes are initiation and cessation rates for men and women, as well as the distribution of the number of cigarettes smoked per day. These fundamental quantities are presented for three scenarios: actual tobacco control in the United States; no tobacco control in which the experience before 1955 was assumed to continue; and complete tobacco control in which all smoking ceased following publication of the report. These results were derived using data from National Health Interview Surveys, and they provide basic input parameters for the Smoking History Generator used by each of the lung cancer models developed by the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore R. Holford & Lauren Clark, 2012. "Chapter 4: Development of the Counterfactual Smoking Histories Used to Assess the Effects of Tobacco Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 39-50, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:s1:p:s39-s50
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01759.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warner, K.E., 1989. "Effects of the antismoking campaign: An update," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 79(2), pages 144-151.
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    Cited by:

    1. Edward J. Oughton & Daniel Ralph & Raghav Pant & Eireann Leverett & Jennifer Copic & Scott Thacker & Rabia Dada & Simon Ruffle & Michelle Tuveson & Jim W Hall, 2019. "Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 2012-2031, September.
    2. Theodore R. Holford & Keita Ebisu & Lisa McKay & Cheongeun Oh & Tongzhang Zheng, 2012. "Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 151-165, August.
    3. Pamela M. McMahon & Chung Yin Kong & Bruce E. Johnson & Milton C. Weinstein & Jane C. Weeks & Angela C. Tramontano & Lauren E. Cipriano & Colleen Bouzan & G. Scott Gazelle, 2012. "Chapter 9: The MGH‐HMS Lung Cancer Policy Model: Tobacco Control Versus Screening," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 117-124, August.
    4. Jihyoun Jeon & Rafael Meza & Martin Krapcho & Lauren D. Clarke & Jeff Byrne & David T. Levy, 2012. "Chapter 5: Actual and Counterfactual Smoking Prevalence Rates in the U.S. Population via Microsimulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 51-68, August.
    5. Eric J. Feuer & David T. Levy & William J. McCarthy, 2012. "Chapter 1: The Impact of the Reduction in Tobacco Smoking on U.S. Lung Cancer Mortality, 1975–2000: An Introduction to the Problem," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 6-13, August.
    6. Giulia Carreras & Giuseppe Gorini, 2013. "Time Trends of Italian Former Smokers 1980–2009 and 2010–2030 Projections Using a Bayesian Age Period Cohort Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.

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