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Evaluation of the Productivity Decrease Risk Due to a Future Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Japan

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  • Miguel Esteban
  • Gorka Longarte‐Galnares

Abstract

A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya.(1) The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Esteban & Gorka Longarte‐Galnares, 2010. "Evaluation of the Productivity Decrease Risk Due to a Future Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Japan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1789-1802, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:12:p:1789-1802
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01483.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James B. Elsner & James P. Kossin & Thomas H. Jagger, 2008. "The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7209), pages 92-95, September.
    2. Christopher W. Landsea, 2005. "Hurricanes and global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7071), pages 11-12, December.
    3. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An Adaptive Regional Input‐Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 779-799, June.
    4. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina," Post-Print hal-00716550, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ranson, Matthew & Tarquinio, Lisa & Lew, Audrey, 2016. "Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Losses," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 280932, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    2. Sayaka Hoshino & Miguel Esteban & Takahito Mikami & Hiroshi Takagi & Tomoya Shibayama, 2016. "Estimation of increase in storm surge damage due to climate change and sea level rise in the Greater Tokyo area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 539-565, January.

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