IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v59y2011i2p771-786.html

Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario

Author

Listed:
  • A. Deo

  • D. Ganer
  • G. Nair

Abstract

Research efforts focused on assessing the potential for changes in tropical cyclone activity in the greenhouse-warmed climate have progressed since the IPCC assessment in 1996. Vulnerability to tropical cyclones becoming more pronounced due to the fastest population growth in tropical coastal regions makes it practically important to explore possible changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming. This paper investigates the tropical cyclone activity over whole globe and also individually over six different ocean basins. The parameters like storm frequency, storm duration, maximum intensity attained and location of formation of storm have been examined over the past 30-year period from 1977 to 2006. Of all, the north Atlantic Ocean shows a significant increasing trend in storm frequency and storm days, especially for intense cyclones. Lifetime of intense tropical cyclones over south Indian Ocean has been increased. The intense cyclonic activity over north Atlantic, south-west Pacific, north and south Indian Ocean has been increased in recent 15 years as compared to previous 15 years, whereas in the east and west-north Pacific it is decreased, instead weak cyclone activity has been increased there. Examination of maximum intensity shows that cyclones are becoming more and more intense over the south Indian Ocean with the highest rate. The study of the change in the cyclogenesis events in the recent 15 years shows more increase in the north Atlantic. The Arabian Sea experiences increase in the cyclogenesis in general, whereas Bay of Bengal witnesses decrease in these events. Shrinking of cyclogenesis region occurs in the east-north Pacific and south-west Pacific, whereas expansion occurs in west-north Pacific. The change in cyclogenesis events and their spatial distribution in association with the meteorological parameters like sea surface temperature (SST), vertical wind shear has been studied for Indian Ocean. The increase in SST and decrease in wind shear correspond to increase in the cyclogenesis events and vice versa for north Indian Ocean; however, for south Indian Ocean, it is not one to one. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • A. Deo & D. Ganer & G. Nair, 2011. "Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 771-786, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:59:y:2011:i:2:p:771-786
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9794-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-011-9794-8
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-011-9794-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher W. Landsea, 2005. "Hurricanes and global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7071), pages 11-12, December.
    2. James B. Elsner & James P. Kossin & Thomas H. Jagger, 2008. "The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7209), pages 92-95, September.
    3. Mark A. Saunders & Adam S. Lea, 2008. "Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7178), pages 557-560, January.
    4. Nathan P. Gillett & Francis W. Zwiers & Andrew J. Weaver & Peter A. Stott, 2003. "Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure," Nature, Nature, vol. 422(6929), pages 292-294, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iris Grossmann & M. Morgan, 2011. "Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 543-579, October.
    2. Graciano Yumul & Nathaniel Servando & Leilanie Suerte & Mae Magarzo & Leo Juguan & Carla Dimalanta, 2012. "Tropical cyclone–southwest monsoon interaction and the 2008 floods and landslides in Panay island, central Philippines: meteorological and geological factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(3), pages 827-840, July.
    3. Miguel Esteban & Gorka Longarte‐Galnares, 2010. "Evaluation of the Productivity Decrease Risk Due to a Future Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Japan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1789-1802, December.
    4. Andrea Staid & Seth Guikema & Roshanak Nateghi & Steven Quiring & Michael Gao, 2014. "Simulation of tropical cyclone impacts to the U.S. power system under climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 535-546, December.
    5. Esteban, Miguel & Zhang, Qi & Longarte-Galnares, Gorka, 2012. "Cost-benefit analysis of a green electricity system in Japan considering the indirect economic impacts of tropical cyclones," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 49-57.
    6. Nekeisha Spencer & Eric Strobl, 2022. "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 47(1), pages 141-157, March.
    7. Stanley Changnon, 2009. "Characteristics of severe Atlantic hurricanes in the United States: 1949–2006," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(3), pages 329-337, March.
    8. Bucher, Axel & El Ghouch, Anouar & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2014. "Single-index quantile regression models for censored data," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2014001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    9. S. Seo, 2014. "Estimating Tropical Cyclone Damages Under Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere Using Reported Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(3), pages 473-490, July.
    10. Nicola Ranger & Falk Nieh�rster, 2011. "Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments," GRI Working Papers 51, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    11. Mohan, Preeya, 2017. "The economic impact of hurricanes on bananas: A case study of Dominica using synthetic control methods," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 21-30.
    12. Ranger, Nicola & Niehörster, Falk, 2011. "Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37587, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Murray, Siobhan & Wheeler, David, 2009. "Sea-level rise and storm surges : a comparative analysis of impacts in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4901, The World Bank.
    14. Mickaël De Backer & Anouar El Ghouch & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2020. "Linear censored quantile regression: A novel minimum‐distance approach," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1275-1306, December.
    15. Sven Kunze, 2021. "Unraveling the Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Economic Sectors Worldwide: Direct and Indirect Impacts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 545-569, April.
    16. Austin Becker & Michele Acciaro & Regina Asariotis & Edgard Cabrera & Laurent Cretegny & Philippe Crist & Miguel Esteban & Andrew Mather & Steve Messner & Susumu Naruse & Adolf Ng & Stefan Rahmstorf &, 2013. "A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 683-695, October.
    17. Roshanak Nateghi & Seth D. Guikema & Yue (Grace) Wu & C. Bayan Bruss, 2016. "Critical Assessment of the Foundations of Power Transmission and Distribution Reliability Metrics and Standards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 4-15, January.
    18. Meri Davlasheridze & Qin Fan, 2019. "Valuing Seawall Protection in the Wake of Hurricane Ike," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 257-279, October.
    19. De Backer, Mickael & El Ghouch, Anouar & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2016. "Semiparametric Copula Quantile Regression for Complete or Censored Data," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2016009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    20. repec:fpr:2020cp:5(5 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Su, Yi-Ju & Liao, Pei-An & Chang, Hung-Hao, 2025. "How does food market respond to natural disaster Shocks? Evidence from the cabbage wholesale market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:59:y:2011:i:2:p:771-786. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.