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NUSAP Method for Evaluating the Data Quality in a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Salmonella in the Pork Production Chain

Author

Listed:
  • Ides Boone
  • Yves Van der Stede
  • Kaatje Bollaerts
  • David Vose
  • Dominiek Maes
  • Jeroen Dewulf
  • Winy Messens
  • Georges Daube
  • Marc Aerts
  • Koen Mintiens

Abstract

The numeral unit spread assessment pedigree (NUSAP) system was implemented to evaluate the quality of input parameters in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model for Salmonella spp. in minced pork meat. The input parameters were grouped according to four successive exposure pathways: (1) primary production (2) transport, holding, and slaughterhouse, (3) postprocessing, distribution, and storage, and (4) preparation and consumption. An inventory of 101 potential input parameters was used for building the QMRA model. The characteristics of each parameter were defined using a standardized procedure to assess (1) the source of information, (2) the sampling methodology and sample size, and (3) the distributional properties of the estimate. Each parameter was scored by a panel of experts using a pedigree matrix containing four criteria (proxy, empirical basis, method, and validation) to assess the quality, and this was graphically represented by means of kite diagrams. The parameters obtained significantly lower scores for the validation criterion as compared with the other criteria. Overall strengths of parameters related to the primary production module were significantly stronger compared to the other modules (the transport, holding, and slaughterhouse module, the processing, distribution, and storage module, and the preparation and consumption module). The pedigree assessment contributed to select 20 parameters, which were subsequently introduced in the QMRA model. The NUSAP methodology and kite diagrams are objective tools to discuss and visualize the quality of the parameters in a structured way. These two tools can be used in the selection procedure of input parameters for a QMRA, and can lead to a more transparent quality assurance in the QMRA.

Suggested Citation

  • Ides Boone & Yves Van der Stede & Kaatje Bollaerts & David Vose & Dominiek Maes & Jeroen Dewulf & Winy Messens & Georges Daube & Marc Aerts & Koen Mintiens, 2009. "NUSAP Method for Evaluating the Data Quality in a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Salmonella in the Pork Production Chain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 502-517, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:4:p:502-517
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01181.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaatje Bollaerts & Marc Aerts & Christel Faes & Koen Grijspeerdt & Jeroen Dewulf & Koen Mintiens, 2008. "Human Salmonellosis: Estimation of Dose‐Illness from Outbreak Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 427-440, April.
    2. Martin P. Krayer von Krauss & Elizabeth A. Casman & Mitchell J. Small, 2004. "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Uncertainty in the Risk Assessment of Herbicide‐Tolerant Oilseed Crops," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1515-1527, December.
    3. H. J. Van der Fels‐Klerx & Roger M. Cooke & Maarten N. Nauta & Louis H. Goossens & Arie H. Havelaar, 2005. "A Structured Expert Judgment Study for a Model of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler‐Chicken Processing," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 109-124, February.
    4. מחקר - ביטוח לאומי, 2006. "Summary for 2005," Working Papers 29, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
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    1. Kaatje Els Bollaerts & Winy Messens & Laurent Delhalle & Marc Aerts & Yves Van der Stede & Jeroen Dewulf & Sophie Quoilin & Dominiek Maes & Koen Mintiens & Koen Grijspeerdt, 2009. "Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(6), pages 820-840, June.
    2. Ides Boone & Yves Van der Stede & Jeroen Dewulf & Winy Messens & Marc Aerts & Georges Daube & Koen Mintiens, 2010. "NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 337-352, April.
    3. Kaatje Bollaerts & Winy Messens & Marc Aerts & Jeroen Dewulf & Dominiek Maes & Koen Grijspeerdt & Yves Van der Stede, 2010. "Evaluation of Scenarios for Reducing Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 853-865, May.
    4. Martijn Bouwknegt & Anne B. Knol & Jeroen P. van der Sluijs & Eric G. Evers, 2014. "Uncertainty of Population Risk Estimates for Pathogens Based on QMRA or Epidemiology: A Case Study of Campylobacter in the Netherlands," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(5), pages 847-864, May.

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