IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v12y1992i1p1-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Management Errors and System Reliability: A Probabilistic Approach and Application to Offshore Platforms

Author

Listed:
  • M. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell
  • Robert G. Bea

Abstract

Probabilistic risk analysis, based on the identification of failure modes, points to technical malfunctions and operator errors that can be direct causes of system failure. Yet component failures and operator errors are often rooted in management decisions and organizational factors. Extending the analysis to identify these factors allows more effective risk management strategies. It also permits a more realistic assessment of the overall failure probability. An implicit assumption that is often made in PRA is that, on the whole, the system has been designed according to specified norms and constructed as designed. Such an analysis tends to overemphasize scenarios in which the system fails because it is subjected to a much higher load than those for which it was designed. In this article, we find that, for the case of jacket‐type offshore platforms, this class of scenarios contributes only about 5% of the failure probability. We link the PRA inputs to decisions and errors during the three phases of design, construction, and operation of platforms, and we assess the contribution of different types of error scenarios to the overall probability of platform failure. We compute the benefits of improving the design review, and we find that, given the costs involved, improving the review process is a more efficient way to increase system safety than reinforcing the structure.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell & Robert G. Bea, 1992. "Management Errors and System Reliability: A Probabilistic Approach and Application to Offshore Platforms," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:12:y:1992:i:1:p:1-18
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb01302.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb01302.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb01302.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. March, James G., 1988. "Variable risk preferences and adaptive aspirations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-24, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Selvik, Jon T. & Bellamy, Linda J., 2020. "Addressing human error when collecting failure cause information in the oil and gas industry: A review of ISO 14224:2016," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    2. M. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell & Linda M. Lakats & Dean M. Murphy & David M. Gaba, 1997. "Anesthesia Patient Risk: A Quantitative Approach to Organizational Factors and Risk Management Options," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 511-523, August.
    3. Dimitrina S. Dimitrova & Vladimir K. Kaishev & Shouqi Zhao, 2015. "Modeling Finite‐Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(10), pages 1919-1939, October.
    4. Dean M. Murphy & M. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 1996. "The SAM Framework: Modeling the Effects of Management Factors on Human Behavior in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 501-515, August.
    5. George M. Gray & Jon C. Allen & David E. Burmaster & Stuart H. Gage & James K. Hammitt & Stanley Kaplan & Ralph L. Keeney & Joseph G. Morse & D. Warner North & Jan P. Nyrop & Alina Stahevitch & Richar, 1998. "Principles for Conduct of Pest Risk Analyses: Report of an Expert Work hop," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(6), pages 773-780, December.
    6. Christian C. Blanco & Felipe Caro & Charles J. Corbett, 2019. "Managing Safety‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(10), pages 2197-2213, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yonggui & Hong, Aoran & Li, Xia & Gao, Jia, 2020. "Marketing innovations during a global crisis: A study of China firms’ response to COVID-19," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 214-220.
    2. Volker Wiemann & Thomas Mellewigt, 1998. "Das Risiko-Rendite Paradoxon. Stand der Forschung und Ergebnisse einer empirischen Untersuchung," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 551-572, June.
    3. Hans Bruining & Ernst Verwaal & Mike Wright, 2013. "Private equity and entrepreneurial management in management buy-outs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 591-605, April.
    4. Mario BENASSI & Matteo LANDONI & Francesco RENTOCCHINI, 2017. "University Management Practices and Academic Spin-offs," Departmental Working Papers 2017-11, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    5. Taillandier, F. & Sauce, G. & Bonetto, R., 2009. "Risk-based investment trade-off related to building facility management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(4), pages 785-795.
    6. Benoy Jacob & Eric Welch & Terence Simms, 2009. "Emergent Management Strategies in a Public Agency: A Case Study of Alternative Fuel Vehicles," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 213-234, September.
    7. Deborah de Lange, 2013. "How do Universities Make Progress? Stakeholder-Related Mechanisms Affecting Adoption of Sustainability in University Curricula," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 103-116, November.
    8. van Rijnsoever & Marius Meeus & Roger Donders, 2012. "The effects of economic status and recent experience on innovative behavior under environmental variability: an experimental approach," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 12-01, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Jan 2012.
    9. Stephan Billinger & Kannan Srikanth & Nils Stieglitz & Terry R. Schumacher, 2021. "Exploration and exploitation in complex search tasks: How feedback influences whether and where human agents search," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 361-385, February.
    10. van Rijnsoever, Frank J. & Meeus, Marius T.H. & Donders, A. Rogier T., 2012. "The effects of economic status and recent experience on innovative behavior under environmental variability: An experimental approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 833-847.
    11. Thorsten Grohsjean & Tobias Kretschmer & Nils Stieglitz, 2011. "Performance Feedback, Firm Resources, and Strategic Change," DRUID Working Papers 11-02, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
    12. Nickel, Manuel Núñez & Rodriguez, Manuel Cano, 2002. "A review of research on the negative accounting relationship between risk and return: Bowman's paradox," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, February.
    13. Knudsen, Thorbjørn, 2008. "Reference groups and variable risk strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 22-36, April.
    14. Chul Lee & Gunno Park & Klaus Marhold & Jina Kang, 2017. "Top management team’s innovation-related characteristics and the firm’s explorative R&D: an analysis based on patent data," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(2), pages 639-663, May.
    15. Haijiao Cui & Bin Cao & Aimei Li & Zhaohui Li, 2023. "A General Model of Subjective Value and Stimulus-Intensity-Sensitive Hedonic Editing Strategy," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 1191-1217, March.
    16. Aurelie Charles & Dongxu Wu & Zhongmin Wu, 2019. "Economic Shocks on Subjective Well-Being: Re-assessing the Determinants of Life-Satisfaction After the 2008 Financial Crisis," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 1041-1055, April.
    17. Roy S., 1996. "Theory of dynamic portfolio choice for survival under uncertainty," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 61-62, February.
    18. Du, Chunpeng & Guo, Keyu & Lu, Yikang & Jin, Haoyu & Shi, Lei, 2023. "Aspiration driven exit-option resolves social dilemmas in the network," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 438(C).
    19. Cano Rodríguez, Manuel & Núñez-Nickel, Manuel, 2002. "Is the risk-return paradox still alive?," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb024818, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    20. Henrich R. Greve, 2002. "Sticky Aspirations: Organizational Time Perspective and Competitiveness," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:12:y:1992:i:1:p:1-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.