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The Reaction of Corn Futures Markets to US and Brazilian Crop Reports

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Lanna Franco da Silveira
  • Renato Moraes Silva
  • Fabio L. Mattos
  • José César Cruz Júnior
  • Daniel Henrique Dario Capitani

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of US (WASDE) and Brazilian (CONAB) crop reports on corn futures prices and trading volumes in both the US and Brazilian markets. Employing an intraday announcement analysis, we investigate how return volatilities and trading volumes respond to the release of these reports. Specifically, we compare prices and volume behavior on report days with the 5 days preceding and following the announcements. Using both parametric and nonparametric tests, our results indicate that WASDE report announcements significantly influence returns and trading volumes in both markets. In contrast, the effects of CONAB reports are less pronounced than those associated with WASDE releases.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Lanna Franco da Silveira & Renato Moraes Silva & Fabio L. Mattos & José César Cruz Júnior & Daniel Henrique Dario Capitani, 2025. "The Reaction of Corn Futures Markets to US and Brazilian Crop Reports," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(9), pages 1298-1323, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:45:y:2025:i:9:p:1298-1323
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22601
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Huang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2021. "The Value of USDA Announcements in the Electronically Traded Corn Futures Market: A Modified Sufficient Test with Risk Adjustments," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 712-734, September.
    2. Karali, Berna, 2012. "Do USDA Announcements Affect Comovements Across Commodity Futures Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(01), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    4. repec:ags:jrapmc:122315 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Jennifer K. Gomez, 2008. "Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 473-490.
    6. Adjemian, Michael K. & Irwin, Scott H., 2020. "The market response to government crop news under different release regimes," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    7. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H., 2020. "Can Private Forecasters Beat the USDA? Analysis of Relative Accuracy of Crop Acreage and Production Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 545-561, November.
    8. Kishore Joseph & Philip Garcia, 2018. "Intraday market effects in electronic soybean futures market during non-trading and trading hour announcements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1188-1202, March.
    9. Fabio L. Mattos & Rodrigo L. F. Silveira, 2016. "Futures Price Response to Crop Reports in Grain Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(10), pages 923-942, October.
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