IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v43y2023i10p1373-1392.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Herd behaviors in index futures trading: Driving factors and impact on market volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Ming‐Hung Wu
  • Wan‐Ting Hu
  • Pei‐Shih Weng

Abstract

This study analyzes market index futures data on the Taiwan Futures Exchange to explore herd trading behaviors and their impact on the market. The study finds that herd behaviors are prevalent in all trading directions and that investor sentiment is a more direct explanation than information chasing. Herding in intraday trading increases market volatility on the same day but decreases it on the following day. Additional tests show that overnight trading has a weaker herding tendency and a less noticeable market correction on the following day, which can be attributed in part to the lower participation of retail traders in overnight sessions. The analysis using overnight trading reinforces the relevance of retail trading in explaining herd trading. Overall, the study offers new evidence and insights into herd behaviors in the derivatives market dominated by retail investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ming‐Hung Wu & Wan‐Ting Hu & Pei‐Shih Weng, 2023. "Herd behaviors in index futures trading: Driving factors and impact on market volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(10), pages 1373-1392, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:43:y:2023:i:10:p:1373-1392
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22413
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22413
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22413?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    3. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    4. Ron Kaniel & Gideon Saar & Sheridan Titman, 2008. "Individual Investor Trading and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 273-310, February.
    5. Yi‐Wei Chuang & Yu‐Fen Lin & Pei‐Shih Weng, 2019. "Why and how do foreign institutional investors outperform domestic investors in futures trading: Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 279-301, March.
    6. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
    7. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    8. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Amit Goyal, 2006. "The Impact of Trades on Daily Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1241-1277.
    9. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    10. Yoshio Iihara & Hideaki Kiyoshi Kato & Toshifumi Tokunaga, 2001. "Investors’ Herding on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 2(1‐2), pages 71-98.
    11. Cheng, Feiyang & Chiao, Chaoshin & Wang, Chunfeng & Fang, Zhenming & Yao, Shouyu, 2021. "Does retail investor attention improve stock liquidity? A dynamic perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 170-183.
    12. Grinblatt, Mark & Keloharju, Matti, 2000. "The investment behavior and performance of various investor types: a study of Finland's unique data set," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-67, January.
    13. Yoshio Iihara & Hideaki Kiyoshi Kato & Toshifumi Tokunaga, 2001. "Investors' Herding on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 2(1&2), pages 71-98.
    14. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    15. Batmunkh, Munkh-Ulzii & Choijil, Enkhbayar & Vieito, João Paulo & Espinosa-Méndez, Christian & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2020. "Does herding behavior exist in the Mongolian stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Chiang, Thomas C. & Zheng, Dazhi, 2010. "An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1911-1921, August.
    17. Mustafa Onur Caglayan & Umut Celiker & Gokhan Sonaer, 2021. "Industry herding by hedge funds," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(18), pages 1887-1907, December.
    18. Jochen M. Schmittmann & Jenny Pirschel & Steffen Meyer & Andreas Hackethal, 2015. "The Impact of Weather on German Retail Investors," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1143-1183.
    19. Hong, Harrison & Yu, Jialin, 2009. "Gone fishin': Seasonality in trading activity and asset prices," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 672-702, November.
    20. Itzhak Venezia & Amrut Nashikkar & Zur Shapira, 2011. "Firm specific and macro herding by professional and amateur investors and their effects on market volatility," Discussion Paper Series dp586, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    21. Venezia, Itzhak & Nashikkar, Amrut & Shapira, Zur, 2011. "Firm specific and macro herding by professional and amateur investors and their effects on market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1599-1609, July.
    22. Hsieh, Shu-Fan, 2013. "Individual and institutional herding and the impact on stock returns: Evidence from Taiwan stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 175-188.
    23. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    24. Natividad Blasco & Pilar Corredor & Sandra Ferreruela, 2012. "Does herding affect volatility? Implications for the Spanish stock market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 311-327, July.
    25. Zhou, Rhea Tingyu & Lai, Rose Neng, 2009. "Herding and information based trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 388-393, June.
    26. John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
    27. Deng, Xin & Hung, Shengmin & Qiao, Zheng, 2018. "Mutual fund herding and stock price crashes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 166-184.
    28. Celiker, Umut & Chowdhury, Jaideep & Sonaer, Gokhan, 2015. "Do mutual funds herd in industries?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.
    29. Choi, Sujung & Choi, Woon Youl, 2019. "Effects of limited attention on investors' trading behavior: Evidence from online ranking data," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 273-289.
    30. Brad M. Barber & Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu & Terrance Odean, 2009. "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 609-632, February.
    31. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Tengdong & Zheng, Dazhi & Zheng, Suyan & Lu, Yang, 2023. "Herding in Chinese stock markets: Evidence from the dual-investor-group," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Hsieh, Shu-Fan & Chan, Chia-Ying & Wang, Ming-Chun, 2020. "Retail investor attention and herding behavior," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 109-132.
    3. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    4. Lin, Anchor Y. & Lin, Yueh-Neng, 2014. "Herding of institutional investors and margin traders on extreme market movements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 186-198.
    5. Rahman, M. Arifur & Chowdhury, Shah Saeed Hassan & Shibley Sadique, M., 2015. "Herding where retail investors dominate trading: The case of Saudi Arabia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 46-60.
    6. Wang, Xinru & Kim, Maria H. & Suardi, Sandy, 2022. "Herding and China's market-wide circuit breaker," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Yi-Chang Chen & Hung-Che Wu & Jen-Jsung Huang, 2017. "Herd Behavior and Rational Expectations: A Test of China's Market Using Quantile Regression," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 649-663.
    8. Zheng, Zhigang & Tang, Ke & Liu, Yaodong & Guo, Jie Michael, 2021. "Gender and herding," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 379-400.
    9. Arjoon, Vaalmikki & Bhatnagar, Chandra Shekhar & Ramlakhan, Prakash, 2020. "Herding in the Singapore stock Exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Charteris, Ailie & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Feedback trading in retail-dominated assets: Evidence from the gold bullion coin market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Li, Wei & Rhee, Ghon & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2017. "Differences in herding: Individual vs. institutional investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 174-185.
    12. Humayun Kabir, M. & Shakur, Shamim, 2018. "Regime-dependent herding behavior in Asian and Latin American stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 60-78.
    13. Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
    14. Ferreruela, Sandra & Mallor, Tania, 2021. "Herding in the bad times: The 2008 and COVID-19 crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2018. "Revisiting Herding Investment Behavior on the Zagreb Stock Exchange: A Quantile Regression Approach," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 3(2), pages 119-162, December.
    16. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2016. "Bond market investor herding: Evidence from the European financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 367-375.
    17. Indārs, Edgars Rihards & Savin, Aliaksei & Lublóy, Ágnes, 2019. "Herding behaviour in an emerging market: Evidence from the Moscow Exchange," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 468-487.
    18. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Gebka, Bartosz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Regulatory mood-congruence and herding: Evidence from cannabis stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 842-864.
    19. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Talat Ulussever, 2016. "Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in net exporting nations?," Working Papers 15-29, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    20. Choi, Nicole & Skiba, Hilla, 2015. "Institutional herding in international markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 246-259.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:43:y:2023:i:10:p:1373-1392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.