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Bankruptcy prediction: the influence of the year prior to failure selected for model building and the effects in a period of economic decline

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  • Paul P. M. Pompe
  • Jan Bilderbeek

Abstract

Using large amounts of data from small and medium‐sized industrial firms, this study examines two aspects of bankruptcy prediction: the influence of the year prior to failure selected for model building and the effects in a period of economic decline. The results show that especially models generated from the final annual report published prior to bankruptcy were less successful in the timely prediction of failure. Furthermore, it was found that economic decline coincided with the deterioration of a model's performance. With respect to the methods used, we found that neural networks had a somewhat better overall performance than multiple discriminant analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul P. M. Pompe & Jan Bilderbeek, 2005. "Bankruptcy prediction: the influence of the year prior to failure selected for model building and the effects in a period of economic decline," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 95-112, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:13:y:2005:i:2:p:95-112
    DOI: 10.1002/isaf.259
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clive S. Lennox, 1999. "The Accuracy and Incremental Information Content of Audit Reports in Predicting Bankruptcy," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5‐6), pages 757-778, June.
    2. Clive S. Lennox, 1999. "The Accuracy and Incremental Information Content of Audit Reports in Predicting Bankruptcy," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5&6), pages 757-778.
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    4. J.E. Boritz & D.B. Kennedy & Augusto de Miranda e Albuquerque, 1995. "Predicting Corporate Failure Using a Neural Network Approach," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 95-111, June.
    5. Pompe, Paul P.M. & Bilderbeek, Jan, 2005. "The prediction of bankruptcy of small- and medium-sized industrial firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 847-868, November.
    6. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    7. Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
    8. Frederick M. Richardson & Gregory D. Kane & Patricia Lobingier, 1998. "The Impact of Recession on the Prediction of Corporate Failure," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1&2), pages 167-186.
    9. Pinches, George E & Mingo, Kent A & Caruthers, J Kent, 1973. "The Stability of Financial Patterns in Industrial Organizations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 389-396, May.
    10. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    11. Frederick M. Richardson & Gregory D. Kane & Patricia Lobingier, 1998. "The Impact of Recession on the Prediction of Corporate Failure," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1‐2), pages 167-186, January.
    12. Mensah, Ym, 1984. "An Examination Of The Stationarity Of Multivariate Bankruptcy Prediction Models - A Methodological Study," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 380-395.
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