IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v16y2007i2p195-209.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expected value of information and decision making in HTA

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Eckermann
  • Andrew R. Willan

Abstract

Decision makers within a jurisdiction facing evidence of positive but uncertain incremental net benefit of a new health care intervention have viable options where no further evidence is anticipated to: (1) adopt the new intervention without further evidence; (2) adopt the new intervention and undertake a trial; or (3) delay the decision and undertake a trial. Value of information methods have been shown previously to allow optimal design of clinical trials in comparing option (2) against option (1), by trading off the expected value and cost of sample information. However, this previous research has not considered the effect of cost of reversal on expected value of information in comparing these options. This paper demonstrates that, where a new intervention is adopted, the expected value of information is reduced under optimal decision making with costs of reversing decisions. Further, the paper shows that comparing expected net gain of optimally designed trials for option (2) vs (1) conditional on cost of reversal, and (3) vs (1) conditional on opportunity cost of delay allow systematic identification of an optimal decision strategy and trial design. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Eckermann & Andrew R. Willan, 2007. "Expected value of information and decision making in HTA," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 195-209, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:16:y:2007:i:2:p:195-209
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1161
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.1161
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.1161?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claxton, K. & Thompson, K. M., 2001. "A dynamic programming approach to the efficient design of clinical trials," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 797-822, September.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    2. Afees Salisu & Idris Adediran, 2021. "Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Energy Market Volatility," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
    3. Bonciani, Dario, 2015. "Estimating the effects of uncertainty over the business cycle," MPRA Paper 65921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Liu, Duan & Yu, Nizhou & Wan, Hong, 2022. "Does water rights trading affect corporate investment? The role of resource allocation and risk mitigation channels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Boyarchenko, Svetlana & Levendorskii[caron], Sergei, 2007. "Optimal stopping made easy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 201-217, February.
    6. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    7. Christian Urom & Gideon Ndubuisi & Jude Ozor, 2021. "Economic activity, and financial and commodity markets’ shocks: An analysis of implied volatility indexes," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 51-66.
    8. Hobijn, Bart & Nechio, Fernanda & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2021. "Using Brexit to identify the nature of price rigidities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Bonciani, Dario, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks: it's a matter of habit," MPRA Paper 59370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.
    11. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    12. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
    13. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    14. Jackie Krafft & Isabelle Nicolaï, 1995. "Commitment Procedures In R&D Investments : An Examination Of Different Varieties," Post-Print hal-01799270, HAL.
    15. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2007. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/36, European University Institute.
    16. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 1999. "Discovering the Link between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 19906, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    17. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
    18. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    19. Buu Kiem Dang & Duc Toan Vo & Nguyen Tuyet Minh Ha, 2025. "The impact of economic uncertainty and institutional quality on bank profitability: global evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1-29, July.
    20. Gerard H. Kuper & Daan P. van Soest, 2006. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Energy Use?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(1), pages 55-78, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:16:y:2007:i:2:p:195-209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.