IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/canjec/v46y2013i1p239-265.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The benefits of storage and non‐renewable resource price dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Jason Stevens

Abstract

Both the Theory of Storage and the Hotelling model play a prominent role in the study of non‐renewable resource prices. This paper combines these approaches by modifying the Hotelling model to allow firms to hold inventory in addition to in‐ground reserves, contributing three new results. First, inventory is more likely to be held if future demand and/or the marginal cost of extraction are uncertain. Second, the market price of the commodity is based on the Theory of Storage when inventory is held. Third, the optimal extraction of the resource is based on the Hotelling model. A la fois la théorie de l’entreprosage et le modèle d’Hotelling jouent un rôle important dans l’étude du prix des ressources non‐renouvelables. Le présent mémoire combine ces approches en modifiant le modèle d’Hotelling pour permettre aux entreprises de détenir des inventaires en plus de réserves souterraines. Cela produit trois résultats. D’abord, on est davantage susceptible de détenir des inventaires si la demande future et/où le coût marginal de l’extraction sont incertains. Ensuite, le prix du marché de la ressource est fondé sur la théorie de l’entreposage quand inventaire il y a. Enfin, l’extraction optimale de la ressource est basée sur le modèle d’Hotelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Stevens, 2013. "The benefits of storage and non‐renewable resource price dynamics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(1), pages 239-265, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:46:y:2013:i:1:p:239-265
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12010
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/caje.12010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Jarrow, 2010. "Convenience yields," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 25-43, April.
    2. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
    4. Gaudet, Gerard & Khadr, Ali M, 1991. "The Evolution of Natural Resource Prices under Stochastic Investment Opportunities: An Intertemporal Asset-Pricing Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(2), pages 441-455, May.
    5. Pindyck, Robert S, 1980. "Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-1225, December.
    6. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-957, October.
    7. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    8. Nicholas Kaldor, 1939. "Speculation and Economic Stability," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27.
    9. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233-233.
    10. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 511-530, May.
    11. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
    12. Sundaresan, Suresh M, 1984. "Equilibrium Valuation of Natural Resources," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(4), pages 493-518, October.
    13. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. "Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-1545, December.
    14. Donald F. Larson, 2007. "On inverse carrying charges and spatial arbitrage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-336, April.
    15. Milton C. Weinstein & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1975. "The Optimal Consumption of Depletable Natural Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 371-392.
    16. Brian D. Wright & Jeffrey C. Williams, 2000. "A theory of negative prices for storage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 59-71, January.
    17. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2001. "Uncertainty and the convenience yield in crude oil price backwardations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 533-548, September.
    18. Robert Heinkel & Maureen E. Howe & John S. Hughes, 1990. "Commodity convenience yields as an option profit," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(5), pages 519-533, October.
    19. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2001. "Uncertainty and the convenience yield in crude oil price backwardations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 533-548, September.
    2. Serena Ng & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 149-171, October.
    3. Hélyette Geman & Vu-Nhat Nguyen, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1076-1091, July.
    4. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 3966, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    5. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    6. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    7. van den Bremer, Ton & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Wills, Samuel, 2016. "The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 113-131.
    8. Awan, Obaid A., 2019. "Price discovery or noise: The role of arbitrage and speculation in explaining crude oil price behaviour," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    9. Peter Berling & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2011. "Optimal Inventory Policies when Purchase Price and Demand Are Stochastic," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 109-124, February.
    10. Murray Carlson & Zeigham Khokher & Sheridan Titman, 2007. "Equilibrium Exhaustible Resource Price Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1663-1703, August.
    11. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    12. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
    13. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
    14. John Livernois & Henry Thille & Xianqiang Zhang, 2006. "A test of the Hotelling rule using old‐growth timber data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 163-186, February.
    15. Francisco Arroyo Marioli, 2020. "Old crop versus new crop prices: Explaining the correlation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1192-1208, July.
    16. Kim, Soohyeon & Kim, Jihyo & Heo, Eunnyeong, 2017. "Convenience yield of accessible inventories and imports: A case study of the Chinese copper market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 277-283.
    17. Salant, Stephen W., 2016. "What ails the European Union׳s emissions trading system?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 6-19.
    18. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Bryan R. Routledge, 2005. "Equilibrium Commodity Prices with Irreversible Investment and Non-Linear Technology," NBER Working Papers 11864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Casassus, Jaime & Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Routledge, Bryan R., 2018. "Equilibrium commodity prices with irreversible investment and non-linear technologies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 128-147.
    20. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:46:y:2013:i:1:p:239-265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1540-5982 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1540-5982 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.