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Verkettungsverfahren in der Quartalsrechnung und ihr Einfluss auf die Konjunkturanalyse

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  • Marcus Scheiblecker

Abstract

Mit der Umstellung der Volumensrechnung in der VGR von einer Fixpreisbasis auf die Berechnung zu Preisen des jeweiligen Vorjahres können keine Absolutwerte mehr, sondern nur reale Veränderungsraten berechnet werden. Zur Herleitung von Absolutwerten muss man auf die Hilfskonstruktion der Verkettung dieser Veränderungsraten zurückgreifen. Während dafür in der Jahresrechnung der VGR ein eindeutiges Verfahren zur Verfügung steht, bieten sich in der Quartalsrechnung drei unterschiedliche Verkettungsverfahren an. Diese Methoden unterscheiden sich von der Konstruktion und in ihren Ergebnissen; zudem hat der Einsatz einer bestimmten Methode Auswirkungen für die Weiterverarbeitung der Zeitreihen etwa in Saisonbereinigung und Konjunkturanalyse: Die Datierung von Konjunkturwendepunkten erweist sich als relativ robust gegenüber der Wahl des Verkettungsverfahrens, hingegen kann die Saison- und Arbeitstagsbereinigung oder die Erkennung von statistischen Ausreißern sehr unterschiedliche Ergebnisse liefern.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Scheiblecker, 2008. "Verkettungsverfahren in der Quartalsrechnung und ihr Einfluss auf die Konjunkturanalyse," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 81(2), pages 119-131, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2008:i:2:p:119-131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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