IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/ecocul/v13y2016i1p53-64n6.html

Identification of Indicators’ Applicability to Settle Borrowers’ Probability of Default

Author

Listed:
  • Jurevičienė Daiva

    (Mykolas Romeris University, Lithuania)

  • Rauličkis Darius

    (Mykolas Romeris University, Lithuania)

Abstract

Borrowers default risk is one of the most relevant types of risk in commercial banking and its assessment is important to secure business profitability and avoid huge losses during economic turbulences. This leads to necessity to investigate topics related to assessment of borrowers’ default probability and applicability of factors, which would enable to capture the newest trends of borrowers’ markets. Leading economic indicators (in addition to financial and other economic indicators) are often suggested as forward-looking in scientific literature. However, there is still a discussion going on applicability of financial ratios and economic indicators. As the problem is relevant in theoretical view as well as for practitioners, this article aims to identify applicability of leading economic indicators for the estimation of default probability. Further, the qualitative criteria for factor selection were identified and used when using detailing, grouping and SWOT analysis methods. Based on current scientific literature analysis, this paper concludes that although leading economic indicators are able to capture forward-looking signals, they should be used with careful analysis of its drawbacks and in combination with financial factors in order to avoid overshooting effects. The limitation of the article is the analysis of factors based on rather theoretical analysis than estimation of quantitative criteria. This suggests that every time using leading economic indicators requires using empirical study of particular indicators’ set.

Suggested Citation

  • Jurevičienė Daiva & Rauličkis Darius, 2016. "Identification of Indicators’ Applicability to Settle Borrowers’ Probability of Default," Economics and Culture, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 53-64, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecocul:v:13:y:2016:i:1:p:53-64:n:6
    DOI: 10.1515/jec-2016-0007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jec-2016-0007
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jec-2016-0007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert S. Kaplan, 2010. "Conceptual Foundations of the Balanced Scorecard," Harvard Business School Working Papers 10-074, Harvard Business School.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    3. Ulrich Fritsche & Sabine Stephan, 2000. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties," Macroeconomics 0004005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mr. John Kiff & Michael Kisser & Miss Liliana B Schumacher, 2013. "Rating Through-the-Cycle: What does the Concept Imply for Rating Stability and Accuracy?," IMF Working Papers 2013/064, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 2006/104, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyriaki Papadopoulou, 2020. "Comparative Review Of Performance Measurement Methods Effectiveness," Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics, SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY "NEOFIT RILSKI", BLAGOEVGRAD, vol. 17(1), pages 127-139.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Honda, Jiro & Tapsoba, René & Issifou, Ismael, 2022. "When do we repair the roof? Insights from responses to fiscal crisis early warning signals," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 349-367.
    5. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2020. "Is Private Debt Excessive?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 471-512, April.
    6. Houda Rharrabti Zaid, 2015. "Transmission du stress financier de la zone euro aux Pays de l’Europe Centrale et Orientale," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-37, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    9. Ons Jedidi & Jean Sébastien Pentecote, 2015. "Robust Signals for Banking Crises," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1617-1629.
    10. Wang, Xichen & Yan, Ji (Karena) & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2021. "Emerging stock market exuberance and international short-term flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    12. Ahmed, Yousry & Elshandidy, Tamer, 2016. "The effect of bidder conservatism on M&A decisions: Text-based evidence from US 10-K filings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 176-190.
    13. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
    14. Natalia Semenova, 2021. "Management control systems in response to social and environmental risk in large Nordic companies," International Journal of Corporate Social Responsibility, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Takeshi Tashiro, . "Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Katsuyuki Tanaka & Takuji Kinkyo & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "Financial Hazard Map: Financial Vulnerability Predicted by a Random Forests Classification Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    17. Shikha Singh & Mandira Sarma, 2020. "Financial Structure and Stability: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 9-32.
    18. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando, 2016. "Systemic risk among European banks: A copula approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-42.
    19. Mohammad Al-Shboul & Aktham Maghyereh, 2023. "Did real economic uncertainty drive risk connectedness in the oil–stock nexus during the COVID-19 outbreak? A partial wavelet coherence analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Shvets, Serhii, 2019. "Parametric early warning system model for Ukraine," MPRA Paper 103819, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:ecocul:v:13:y:2016:i:1:p:53-64:n:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.