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Testing For Bubbles In The Housing Market: Further Evidence From Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • ZEREN, Feyyaz

    (Namık Kemal University, Department of Business and Administration)

  • ERGÜZEL, Oylum Şehvez

    (Sakarya University, Department of International Trade)

Abstract

In this study whether bubbles exist in the three biggest cities housing market, İstanbul (TR10), İzmir (TR31) and Ankara (TR51) which are important parts of Turkish housing market is investigated. Besides, SADF and GSADF unit root tests developed by Phillips et. al. (2011, 2012) is used in order to detect bubbles in the housing market in the period between January-2010 and June-2014. The results show that real estate bubbles do not exist in the Turkish housing market and price increases above the average are experienced only for the short terms, not over the long terms permanently. In this context, efficient market hypothesis is valid for Turkish housing market and it verifies that Turkish housing market experienced the 2008 Mortgage crisis rather slightly than many other countries. These findings indicate stability in the housing market by sustaining its correct house pricing policy after the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • ZEREN, Feyyaz & ERGÜZEL, Oylum Şehvez, 2015. "Testing For Bubbles In The Housing Market: Further Evidence From Turkey," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(1), pages 40-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:19:y:2015:i:1:p:40-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    2. E. Gallagher & D. Bond & E. Ramsey, 2015. "Northern Ireland's property market bubble: a preliminary analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 61-65, January.
    3. Tsangyao Chang & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Omid Ranjbar, 2014. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles in the BRICS Stock Markets," Working Papers 201407, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp338, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-462 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages 39-48, February.
    7. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemčík, 2009. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 366-386, May.
    8. Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013. "Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
    9. Engsted, Tom & Hviid, Simon J. & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2016. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-25.
    10. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Renewed Momentum in the German Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4287, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Estate Bubbles; Housing Market; SADF; GSADF; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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