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Testing For Bubbles In The Housing Market: Further Evidence From Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • ZEREN, Feyyaz

    (Namık Kemal University, Department of Business and Administration)

  • ERGÜZEL, Oylum Şehvez

    (Sakarya University, Department of International Trade)

Abstract

In this study whether bubbles exist in the three biggest cities housing market, İstanbul (TR10), İzmir (TR31) and Ankara (TR51) which are important parts of Turkish housing market is investigated. Besides, SADF and GSADF unit root tests developed by Phillips et. al. (2011, 2012) is used in order to detect bubbles in the housing market in the period between January-2010 and June-2014. The results show that real estate bubbles do not exist in the Turkish housing market and price increases above the average are experienced only for the short terms, not over the long terms permanently. In this context, efficient market hypothesis is valid for Turkish housing market and it verifies that Turkish housing market experienced the 2008 Mortgage crisis rather slightly than many other countries. These findings indicate stability in the housing market by sustaining its correct house pricing policy after the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • ZEREN, Feyyaz & ERGÜZEL, Oylum Şehvez, 2015. "Testing For Bubbles In The Housing Market: Further Evidence From Turkey," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(1), pages 40-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:19:y:2015:i:1:p:40-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    7. E. Gallagher & D. Bond & E. Ramsey, 2015. "Northern Ireland's property market bubble: a preliminary analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 61-65, January.
    8. Tsangyao Chang & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Omid Ranjbar, 2014. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles in the BRICS Stock Markets," Working Papers 201407, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-462 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Renewed Momentum in the German Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4287, CESifo.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.
    2. Zeren Feyyaz & Yilanci Veli, 2019. "Are there Multiple Bubbles in the Stock Markets? Further Evidence from Selected Countries," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 98(1), pages 81-95, June.
    3. Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım & Özge Filiz Yağcıbaşı, 2019. "The Dynamics Of House Prices And Fiscal Policy Shocks In Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 39-60, January –.
    4. Coskun Yener & Jadevicius Arvydas, 2017. "Is there a Housing Bubble in Turkey?," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 48-73, March.
    5. Iskenderoglu, Omer & Akdag, Saffet, 2019. "Türkiye’de Reel Konut Fiyatlarında Balonların Varlığı Üzerine Uygulamalı Bir Analiz (An Applied Analysis on the Presence of Price Bubbles of Real Estate Prices in Turkey)," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 10(5), pages 1085-1093, October.
    6. Butt, Muhammad Danial & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2019. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles in Inflation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 96847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Butt, Muhammad Danial & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2019. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles in Inflation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 96705, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Estate Bubbles; Housing Market; SADF; GSADF; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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