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Low, but not too low, fertility can represent a positive development

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  • Vegard Skirbekk

Abstract

The public discourse about the ongoing fertility decline and the spread of low fertility, and the consequences thereof, is often unscientific and emotionally charged. As I argue in my book, Decline and Prosper! (Skirbekk, 2022), low fertility per se does not pose a major societal threat – and it is also accompanied by a number of benefits. In this article, I summarize my main points: namely, that i) the negative consequences of low fertility are often exaggerated and based on false assumptions; ii) low fertility is driven by many different, interacting factors, and is the byproduct or the cause of many positive societal developments; iii) low fertility is here to stay; and iv) societies urgently need to adapt to a world with fewer children. Fertility decline is self-perpetuating: once lowfertility has become the normin one generation, the fertility level is much less likely to increase in subsequent generations. At the same time, no plausible level of migration would be enough to meaningfully alter population aging in the long term. If, however, societies make the right choices, low fertility can enable humans to live more sustainably well into the future, and can stimulate further positive developments in the human condition.

Suggested Citation

  • Vegard Skirbekk, 2023. "Low, but not too low, fertility can represent a positive development," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 21(1), pages 81-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:21:y:2023:i:1:oid:0x003e69a4
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    1. Maria Rita Testa & Vegard Skirbekk & Wolfgang Lutz, 2006. "The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis. Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 167-192.
    2. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    3. Asheim, Geir B. & Hartwick, John M. & Yamaguchi, Rintaro, 2023. "Sustainable per capita consumption under population growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
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