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The J-Shape Of Performance Persistence Given Survivorship Bias

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  • Darryll Hendricks
  • Jayendu Patel
  • Richard Zeckhauser

Abstract

Performance may enhance survival probability. When it does, the induced lack of randomness challenges robust and unbiased inference. If survivors are sorted into two groups based on past performance, spurious persistence has been demonstrated if variance in performance is heterogeneous. However, as we show both theoretically and with simulations, if performance is categorized finely, the spurious persistence will be J - shaped; that is, at the bottom better performance in one period "predicts" worse performance for another period. We propose a simple t - test applied to the quadratic coefficient in a regression to distinguish between a spurious J - shape and monotonic patterns. Mutual funds, our example, exhibit the monotonically increasing pattern produced by true performance persistence. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • Darryll Hendricks & Jayendu Patel & Richard Zeckhauser, 1997. "The J-Shape Of Performance Persistence Given Survivorship Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 161-166, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:79:y:1997:i:2:p:161-166
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    Cited by:

    1. Huij, Joop & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Cross-sectional learning and short-run persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 973-997, March.
    2. Houdou Basse Mama & Alexander Bassen, 2017. "Neglected disciplinary effects of investor relations: evidence from corporate cash holdings," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 87(2), pages 221-261, February.
    3. Simon Stevenson, 2004. "A performance evaluation of portfolio managers: tests of micro and macro forecasting," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 391-411.
    4. Darolles, Serge & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simon, Guillaume, 2010. "Nonparametric Analysis of Hedge Funds Lifetimes," IDEI Working Papers 620, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    5. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & James Park, 1998. "Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm83, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
    6. Hung-Cheng Lai & Kuan-Min Wang, 2016. "Does Survivorship Bias of Mutual Funds Differ Between Liquidations and Mergers?," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 2(4), pages 299-314.
    7. Astrachan, Joseph H., 2010. "Strategy in family business: Toward a multidimensional research agenda," Journal of Family Business Strategy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 6-14, March.
    8. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters,in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Philpot, James & Hearth, Douglas & Rimbey, James, 2000. "Performance persistence and management skill in nonconventional bond mutual funds," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 247-258, 00.
    10. Dai, John & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2009. "Risk Management Framework for Hedge Funds: Role of Funding and Redemption Options on Leverage," MPRA Paper 16483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    12. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December.
    13. Boldron, François & Fève, Frédérique & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Panet-Amaro, C. & Valognes, C., 2010. "Econometric Models and the Evolution of Post-Offices Network," IDEI Working Papers 626, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    14. Qiang Bu & Nelson Lacey, 2009. "On understanding mutual fund terminations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(1), pages 80-99, January.
    15. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 2004. "The Bank Bias: Segmentation of French Fund Families," Working papers 107, Banque de France.
    16. Zhao, Xinge, 2004. "Why are some mutual funds closed to new investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1867-1887, August.

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