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Stock market crashes in 2007--2009: were we able to predict them?


  • Sébastien Lleo
  • William T. Ziemba


AbstractWe investigate the stock market crashes in China, Iceland, and the US in the 2007–2009 period. The bond stock earnings yield difference model is used as a prediction tool. Historically, when the measure is too high, meaning that long bond interest rates are too high relative to the trailing earnings over price ratio, then there usually is a crash of 10% or more within four to twelve months. The model did in fact predict all three crashes. Iceland had a drop of fully 95%, China fell by two thirds and the US by 57%.
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Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Lleo & William T. Ziemba, 2012. "Stock market crashes in 2007--2009: were we able to predict them?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 1161-1187, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:12:y:2012:i:8:p:1161-1187
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2012.709791

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    Cited by:

    1. Shiryaev, Albert N. & Zhitlukhin, M. V. & Ziemba, William T., 2013. "When to sell Apple and the NASDAQ? Trading bubbles with a stochastic disorder model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60966, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Lleo, Sébastien & Ziemba, William T., 2015. "Some historical perspectives on the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Model for crash prediction around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-425.
    3. Lleo, Sebastien & Ziemba, William T., 2017. "A tale of two indexes: predicting equity market downturns in China," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85131, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Gong, Pu & Weng, Yingliang, 2016. "Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 441(C), pages 173-191.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers


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